Markov chains. If $X_0=0$ then the probability that $X_nge1$ for all $nge 1$ is $frac6pi^2$ The 2019 Stack Overflow Developer Survey Results Are In Announcing the arrival of Valued Associate #679: Cesar Manara Planned maintenance scheduled April 17/18, 2019 at 00:00UTC (8:00pm US/Eastern)Probability with Markov chainsOn the definition of Markov chainsShow that the process created from taking kth steps of a markov chain is markov.Understanding the random variable definition of Markov chainsProbability of a coin tossed using Markov ChainsAbout the transition matrix of Markov ChainsOn the 'Strong Markov Property' in 'Discrete Time Markov Chains'.Law of large numbers for Markov ChainsProbability $mathbbP[X_N = 1 | X_0 = 1]$ for a Markov Chain over $mathbbX = 1,2,3$Determining whether the following are Markov Chains

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Markov chains. If $X_0=0$ then the probability that $X_nge1$ for all $nge 1$ is $frac6pi^2$



The 2019 Stack Overflow Developer Survey Results Are In
Announcing the arrival of Valued Associate #679: Cesar Manara
Planned maintenance scheduled April 17/18, 2019 at 00:00UTC (8:00pm US/Eastern)Probability with Markov chainsOn the definition of Markov chainsShow that the process created from taking kth steps of a markov chain is markov.Understanding the random variable definition of Markov chainsProbability of a coin tossed using Markov ChainsAbout the transition matrix of Markov ChainsOn the 'Strong Markov Property' in 'Discrete Time Markov Chains'.Law of large numbers for Markov ChainsProbability $mathbbP[X_N = 1 | X_0 = 1]$ for a Markov Chain over $mathbbX = 1,2,3$Determining whether the following are Markov Chains










4












$begingroup$


Let $(X_n)_nge0$ be a markov chain on $0,1,...$ with transition probabilities given by



$p_01=1,p_i,i+1+p_i,i-1=1, p_i,i+1=Big(fraci+1iBig)^2p_i,i-1, ige1$




I need to show that if $X_0=0$ then the probability that $X_nge1$ for all $nge 1$ is $frac6pi^2$




I'm looking for tips on how to solve this task.










share|cite|improve this question











$endgroup$
















    4












    $begingroup$


    Let $(X_n)_nge0$ be a markov chain on $0,1,...$ with transition probabilities given by



    $p_01=1,p_i,i+1+p_i,i-1=1, p_i,i+1=Big(fraci+1iBig)^2p_i,i-1, ige1$




    I need to show that if $X_0=0$ then the probability that $X_nge1$ for all $nge 1$ is $frac6pi^2$




    I'm looking for tips on how to solve this task.










    share|cite|improve this question











    $endgroup$














      4












      4








      4


      4



      $begingroup$


      Let $(X_n)_nge0$ be a markov chain on $0,1,...$ with transition probabilities given by



      $p_01=1,p_i,i+1+p_i,i-1=1, p_i,i+1=Big(fraci+1iBig)^2p_i,i-1, ige1$




      I need to show that if $X_0=0$ then the probability that $X_nge1$ for all $nge 1$ is $frac6pi^2$




      I'm looking for tips on how to solve this task.










      share|cite|improve this question











      $endgroup$




      Let $(X_n)_nge0$ be a markov chain on $0,1,...$ with transition probabilities given by



      $p_01=1,p_i,i+1+p_i,i-1=1, p_i,i+1=Big(fraci+1iBig)^2p_i,i-1, ige1$




      I need to show that if $X_0=0$ then the probability that $X_nge1$ for all $nge 1$ is $frac6pi^2$




      I'm looking for tips on how to solve this task.







      measure-theory stochastic-processes markov-chains markov-process






      share|cite|improve this question















      share|cite|improve this question













      share|cite|improve this question




      share|cite|improve this question








      edited Mar 25 at 7:48







      user657391

















      asked Mar 24 at 16:40









      user657391user657391

      253




      253




















          2 Answers
          2






          active

          oldest

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          1












          $begingroup$

          Here is a rather long answer but it has the merit of being quite general I think.



          Minimality of the hitting probability



          In the general case of a Markov chain with state space $mathbbN$ and transitions $(p_i,j)_(i,j)inmathbbN^2$, consider $mathcalP subset mathbbN$ a subset of states and for all $i inmathbbN$, $(X_n(i))$ a Markov chain starting from $i$ and the hitting probability $h_mathcalP(i) = mathbbPbig(infnge 0, X_n(i) in mathcalP < +inftybig)$. Now we have that $$h_mathcalP mbox is the minimal non negative solution to quad h(i)=left{beginarrayll 1 mbox if i in mathcalP\ sum limits_j in mathbbN p_i,jh(j) mbox otherwise.endarrayright.$$



          Indeed, $h_mathcalP$ is a solution. Conversely, if $h$ is a solution, for $i in mathbbN backslash mathcalP$, $h(i) = sum limits_j in mathcalP p_i,j + sum limits_j in mathbbNbackslash mathcalP p_i,jh(j)$. Plugging it back, we also get $h(i) = sum limits_j in mathcalP p_i,j + sum limits_j in mathbbNbackslashmathcalPp_i,jsum limits_k in mathcalPp_j,k + sum limits_j in mathbbNbackslashmathcalPp_i,j sum limits_k in mathbbNbackslash mathcalP p_j,kh(k)$. Repeat several times and note that the last term is non negative: you get $$h(i) ge mathbbP(X_1 in mathcalP)+mathbbP(X_1 notin mathcalP,X_2inmathcalP)+cdotcdotcdot+mathbbP(X_1notinmathcalP,...,X_n-1notinmathcalP,X_ninmathcalP).$$ Taking the limit, $h(i) ge h_mathcalP(i)$ using the definition of $h_mathcalP$.



          $ $



          Back to your problem



          I will change a bit your problem. We are going to see $0$ as a well, and the random walk starts from $1$. So $X_0=1$ and $p_0,0 = 1$. Nothing else is changed.



          In your problem the hitting states are just $mathcalP = 0$, the transition are given as you stated. Let us define and compute the sequence $u_n = h_mathcalP(n)$, the probability of hitting $0$ starting from $n$. We have $u_0 = 1$ (if you start in the well $0$, you hit it) and for all $n ge 1$, the law of total probability yields $u_n = p_n,n-1u_n-1+p_n,n+1u_n+1 = fracn^2n^2+(n+1)^2u_n-1+frac(n+1)^2n^2+(n+1)^2u_n+1$. Regrouping gives you $(n+1)^2 (u_n+1-u_n) = n^2 (u_n-u_n-1)$ so $u_n+1-u_n = Big(prod limits_k=1^n frack^2(k+1)^2Big)(u_1-u_0)=frac1(n+1)^2(u_1-1)$.



          Summing, we get $u_n-u_0 = sum limits_k=0^n-1 frac1(k+1)^2(u_1-1)$ i.e. $$u_n = 1 - (1-u_1) sum limits_k=1^n frac1k^2.$$



          Now use the first section: among all possible choices of $u_1$, it has to be the one that makes $(u_n)$ minimal and non negative. Remind that $sum limits_k=1^n frac1k^2 undersetn to inftylongrightarrow fracpi^26$. If we had $u_1 < 1-frac6pi^2$, $(u_n)$ would not be non-negative, and with $u_1 > 1-frac6pi^2$ it would not be the minimal solution (because a $u_1'$ between $1-frac6pi^2$ and $u_1$ would give a smaller solution).



          That gives you $u_1 = 1-frac6pi^2$. The probability of going back to zero starting from $1$ is $1-frac6pi^2$. Additionnally, we found that the probabilty of going back to zero starting from $n$ is $1 - frac6pi^2 sum limits_k=1^n frac1k^2$.






          share|cite|improve this answer











          $endgroup$




















            0












            $begingroup$

            Hint 1: it's easier to find the probability of the complement event.



            Hint 2: you can use the first entrance decomposition to write
            $$
            P(X_n = 0 text eventually) = sum_k=2^inftyP(tau_0 =k)
            $$

            where $tau_0 = infi ge 1 : X_i = 0 $.



            Hint 3:
            $P(tau_0 =k) = 0$ whenever $k$ is odd, and when it's not zero, it has a special form.






            share|cite|improve this answer









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              2 Answers
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              2 Answers
              2






              active

              oldest

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              active

              oldest

              votes






              active

              oldest

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              1












              $begingroup$

              Here is a rather long answer but it has the merit of being quite general I think.



              Minimality of the hitting probability



              In the general case of a Markov chain with state space $mathbbN$ and transitions $(p_i,j)_(i,j)inmathbbN^2$, consider $mathcalP subset mathbbN$ a subset of states and for all $i inmathbbN$, $(X_n(i))$ a Markov chain starting from $i$ and the hitting probability $h_mathcalP(i) = mathbbPbig(infnge 0, X_n(i) in mathcalP < +inftybig)$. Now we have that $$h_mathcalP mbox is the minimal non negative solution to quad h(i)=left{beginarrayll 1 mbox if i in mathcalP\ sum limits_j in mathbbN p_i,jh(j) mbox otherwise.endarrayright.$$



              Indeed, $h_mathcalP$ is a solution. Conversely, if $h$ is a solution, for $i in mathbbN backslash mathcalP$, $h(i) = sum limits_j in mathcalP p_i,j + sum limits_j in mathbbNbackslash mathcalP p_i,jh(j)$. Plugging it back, we also get $h(i) = sum limits_j in mathcalP p_i,j + sum limits_j in mathbbNbackslashmathcalPp_i,jsum limits_k in mathcalPp_j,k + sum limits_j in mathbbNbackslashmathcalPp_i,j sum limits_k in mathbbNbackslash mathcalP p_j,kh(k)$. Repeat several times and note that the last term is non negative: you get $$h(i) ge mathbbP(X_1 in mathcalP)+mathbbP(X_1 notin mathcalP,X_2inmathcalP)+cdotcdotcdot+mathbbP(X_1notinmathcalP,...,X_n-1notinmathcalP,X_ninmathcalP).$$ Taking the limit, $h(i) ge h_mathcalP(i)$ using the definition of $h_mathcalP$.



              $ $



              Back to your problem



              I will change a bit your problem. We are going to see $0$ as a well, and the random walk starts from $1$. So $X_0=1$ and $p_0,0 = 1$. Nothing else is changed.



              In your problem the hitting states are just $mathcalP = 0$, the transition are given as you stated. Let us define and compute the sequence $u_n = h_mathcalP(n)$, the probability of hitting $0$ starting from $n$. We have $u_0 = 1$ (if you start in the well $0$, you hit it) and for all $n ge 1$, the law of total probability yields $u_n = p_n,n-1u_n-1+p_n,n+1u_n+1 = fracn^2n^2+(n+1)^2u_n-1+frac(n+1)^2n^2+(n+1)^2u_n+1$. Regrouping gives you $(n+1)^2 (u_n+1-u_n) = n^2 (u_n-u_n-1)$ so $u_n+1-u_n = Big(prod limits_k=1^n frack^2(k+1)^2Big)(u_1-u_0)=frac1(n+1)^2(u_1-1)$.



              Summing, we get $u_n-u_0 = sum limits_k=0^n-1 frac1(k+1)^2(u_1-1)$ i.e. $$u_n = 1 - (1-u_1) sum limits_k=1^n frac1k^2.$$



              Now use the first section: among all possible choices of $u_1$, it has to be the one that makes $(u_n)$ minimal and non negative. Remind that $sum limits_k=1^n frac1k^2 undersetn to inftylongrightarrow fracpi^26$. If we had $u_1 < 1-frac6pi^2$, $(u_n)$ would not be non-negative, and with $u_1 > 1-frac6pi^2$ it would not be the minimal solution (because a $u_1'$ between $1-frac6pi^2$ and $u_1$ would give a smaller solution).



              That gives you $u_1 = 1-frac6pi^2$. The probability of going back to zero starting from $1$ is $1-frac6pi^2$. Additionnally, we found that the probabilty of going back to zero starting from $n$ is $1 - frac6pi^2 sum limits_k=1^n frac1k^2$.






              share|cite|improve this answer











              $endgroup$

















                1












                $begingroup$

                Here is a rather long answer but it has the merit of being quite general I think.



                Minimality of the hitting probability



                In the general case of a Markov chain with state space $mathbbN$ and transitions $(p_i,j)_(i,j)inmathbbN^2$, consider $mathcalP subset mathbbN$ a subset of states and for all $i inmathbbN$, $(X_n(i))$ a Markov chain starting from $i$ and the hitting probability $h_mathcalP(i) = mathbbPbig(infnge 0, X_n(i) in mathcalP < +inftybig)$. Now we have that $$h_mathcalP mbox is the minimal non negative solution to quad h(i)=left{beginarrayll 1 mbox if i in mathcalP\ sum limits_j in mathbbN p_i,jh(j) mbox otherwise.endarrayright.$$



                Indeed, $h_mathcalP$ is a solution. Conversely, if $h$ is a solution, for $i in mathbbN backslash mathcalP$, $h(i) = sum limits_j in mathcalP p_i,j + sum limits_j in mathbbNbackslash mathcalP p_i,jh(j)$. Plugging it back, we also get $h(i) = sum limits_j in mathcalP p_i,j + sum limits_j in mathbbNbackslashmathcalPp_i,jsum limits_k in mathcalPp_j,k + sum limits_j in mathbbNbackslashmathcalPp_i,j sum limits_k in mathbbNbackslash mathcalP p_j,kh(k)$. Repeat several times and note that the last term is non negative: you get $$h(i) ge mathbbP(X_1 in mathcalP)+mathbbP(X_1 notin mathcalP,X_2inmathcalP)+cdotcdotcdot+mathbbP(X_1notinmathcalP,...,X_n-1notinmathcalP,X_ninmathcalP).$$ Taking the limit, $h(i) ge h_mathcalP(i)$ using the definition of $h_mathcalP$.



                $ $



                Back to your problem



                I will change a bit your problem. We are going to see $0$ as a well, and the random walk starts from $1$. So $X_0=1$ and $p_0,0 = 1$. Nothing else is changed.



                In your problem the hitting states are just $mathcalP = 0$, the transition are given as you stated. Let us define and compute the sequence $u_n = h_mathcalP(n)$, the probability of hitting $0$ starting from $n$. We have $u_0 = 1$ (if you start in the well $0$, you hit it) and for all $n ge 1$, the law of total probability yields $u_n = p_n,n-1u_n-1+p_n,n+1u_n+1 = fracn^2n^2+(n+1)^2u_n-1+frac(n+1)^2n^2+(n+1)^2u_n+1$. Regrouping gives you $(n+1)^2 (u_n+1-u_n) = n^2 (u_n-u_n-1)$ so $u_n+1-u_n = Big(prod limits_k=1^n frack^2(k+1)^2Big)(u_1-u_0)=frac1(n+1)^2(u_1-1)$.



                Summing, we get $u_n-u_0 = sum limits_k=0^n-1 frac1(k+1)^2(u_1-1)$ i.e. $$u_n = 1 - (1-u_1) sum limits_k=1^n frac1k^2.$$



                Now use the first section: among all possible choices of $u_1$, it has to be the one that makes $(u_n)$ minimal and non negative. Remind that $sum limits_k=1^n frac1k^2 undersetn to inftylongrightarrow fracpi^26$. If we had $u_1 < 1-frac6pi^2$, $(u_n)$ would not be non-negative, and with $u_1 > 1-frac6pi^2$ it would not be the minimal solution (because a $u_1'$ between $1-frac6pi^2$ and $u_1$ would give a smaller solution).



                That gives you $u_1 = 1-frac6pi^2$. The probability of going back to zero starting from $1$ is $1-frac6pi^2$. Additionnally, we found that the probabilty of going back to zero starting from $n$ is $1 - frac6pi^2 sum limits_k=1^n frac1k^2$.






                share|cite|improve this answer











                $endgroup$















                  1












                  1








                  1





                  $begingroup$

                  Here is a rather long answer but it has the merit of being quite general I think.



                  Minimality of the hitting probability



                  In the general case of a Markov chain with state space $mathbbN$ and transitions $(p_i,j)_(i,j)inmathbbN^2$, consider $mathcalP subset mathbbN$ a subset of states and for all $i inmathbbN$, $(X_n(i))$ a Markov chain starting from $i$ and the hitting probability $h_mathcalP(i) = mathbbPbig(infnge 0, X_n(i) in mathcalP < +inftybig)$. Now we have that $$h_mathcalP mbox is the minimal non negative solution to quad h(i)=left{beginarrayll 1 mbox if i in mathcalP\ sum limits_j in mathbbN p_i,jh(j) mbox otherwise.endarrayright.$$



                  Indeed, $h_mathcalP$ is a solution. Conversely, if $h$ is a solution, for $i in mathbbN backslash mathcalP$, $h(i) = sum limits_j in mathcalP p_i,j + sum limits_j in mathbbNbackslash mathcalP p_i,jh(j)$. Plugging it back, we also get $h(i) = sum limits_j in mathcalP p_i,j + sum limits_j in mathbbNbackslashmathcalPp_i,jsum limits_k in mathcalPp_j,k + sum limits_j in mathbbNbackslashmathcalPp_i,j sum limits_k in mathbbNbackslash mathcalP p_j,kh(k)$. Repeat several times and note that the last term is non negative: you get $$h(i) ge mathbbP(X_1 in mathcalP)+mathbbP(X_1 notin mathcalP,X_2inmathcalP)+cdotcdotcdot+mathbbP(X_1notinmathcalP,...,X_n-1notinmathcalP,X_ninmathcalP).$$ Taking the limit, $h(i) ge h_mathcalP(i)$ using the definition of $h_mathcalP$.



                  $ $



                  Back to your problem



                  I will change a bit your problem. We are going to see $0$ as a well, and the random walk starts from $1$. So $X_0=1$ and $p_0,0 = 1$. Nothing else is changed.



                  In your problem the hitting states are just $mathcalP = 0$, the transition are given as you stated. Let us define and compute the sequence $u_n = h_mathcalP(n)$, the probability of hitting $0$ starting from $n$. We have $u_0 = 1$ (if you start in the well $0$, you hit it) and for all $n ge 1$, the law of total probability yields $u_n = p_n,n-1u_n-1+p_n,n+1u_n+1 = fracn^2n^2+(n+1)^2u_n-1+frac(n+1)^2n^2+(n+1)^2u_n+1$. Regrouping gives you $(n+1)^2 (u_n+1-u_n) = n^2 (u_n-u_n-1)$ so $u_n+1-u_n = Big(prod limits_k=1^n frack^2(k+1)^2Big)(u_1-u_0)=frac1(n+1)^2(u_1-1)$.



                  Summing, we get $u_n-u_0 = sum limits_k=0^n-1 frac1(k+1)^2(u_1-1)$ i.e. $$u_n = 1 - (1-u_1) sum limits_k=1^n frac1k^2.$$



                  Now use the first section: among all possible choices of $u_1$, it has to be the one that makes $(u_n)$ minimal and non negative. Remind that $sum limits_k=1^n frac1k^2 undersetn to inftylongrightarrow fracpi^26$. If we had $u_1 < 1-frac6pi^2$, $(u_n)$ would not be non-negative, and with $u_1 > 1-frac6pi^2$ it would not be the minimal solution (because a $u_1'$ between $1-frac6pi^2$ and $u_1$ would give a smaller solution).



                  That gives you $u_1 = 1-frac6pi^2$. The probability of going back to zero starting from $1$ is $1-frac6pi^2$. Additionnally, we found that the probabilty of going back to zero starting from $n$ is $1 - frac6pi^2 sum limits_k=1^n frac1k^2$.






                  share|cite|improve this answer











                  $endgroup$



                  Here is a rather long answer but it has the merit of being quite general I think.



                  Minimality of the hitting probability



                  In the general case of a Markov chain with state space $mathbbN$ and transitions $(p_i,j)_(i,j)inmathbbN^2$, consider $mathcalP subset mathbbN$ a subset of states and for all $i inmathbbN$, $(X_n(i))$ a Markov chain starting from $i$ and the hitting probability $h_mathcalP(i) = mathbbPbig(infnge 0, X_n(i) in mathcalP < +inftybig)$. Now we have that $$h_mathcalP mbox is the minimal non negative solution to quad h(i)=left{beginarrayll 1 mbox if i in mathcalP\ sum limits_j in mathbbN p_i,jh(j) mbox otherwise.endarrayright.$$



                  Indeed, $h_mathcalP$ is a solution. Conversely, if $h$ is a solution, for $i in mathbbN backslash mathcalP$, $h(i) = sum limits_j in mathcalP p_i,j + sum limits_j in mathbbNbackslash mathcalP p_i,jh(j)$. Plugging it back, we also get $h(i) = sum limits_j in mathcalP p_i,j + sum limits_j in mathbbNbackslashmathcalPp_i,jsum limits_k in mathcalPp_j,k + sum limits_j in mathbbNbackslashmathcalPp_i,j sum limits_k in mathbbNbackslash mathcalP p_j,kh(k)$. Repeat several times and note that the last term is non negative: you get $$h(i) ge mathbbP(X_1 in mathcalP)+mathbbP(X_1 notin mathcalP,X_2inmathcalP)+cdotcdotcdot+mathbbP(X_1notinmathcalP,...,X_n-1notinmathcalP,X_ninmathcalP).$$ Taking the limit, $h(i) ge h_mathcalP(i)$ using the definition of $h_mathcalP$.



                  $ $



                  Back to your problem



                  I will change a bit your problem. We are going to see $0$ as a well, and the random walk starts from $1$. So $X_0=1$ and $p_0,0 = 1$. Nothing else is changed.



                  In your problem the hitting states are just $mathcalP = 0$, the transition are given as you stated. Let us define and compute the sequence $u_n = h_mathcalP(n)$, the probability of hitting $0$ starting from $n$. We have $u_0 = 1$ (if you start in the well $0$, you hit it) and for all $n ge 1$, the law of total probability yields $u_n = p_n,n-1u_n-1+p_n,n+1u_n+1 = fracn^2n^2+(n+1)^2u_n-1+frac(n+1)^2n^2+(n+1)^2u_n+1$. Regrouping gives you $(n+1)^2 (u_n+1-u_n) = n^2 (u_n-u_n-1)$ so $u_n+1-u_n = Big(prod limits_k=1^n frack^2(k+1)^2Big)(u_1-u_0)=frac1(n+1)^2(u_1-1)$.



                  Summing, we get $u_n-u_0 = sum limits_k=0^n-1 frac1(k+1)^2(u_1-1)$ i.e. $$u_n = 1 - (1-u_1) sum limits_k=1^n frac1k^2.$$



                  Now use the first section: among all possible choices of $u_1$, it has to be the one that makes $(u_n)$ minimal and non negative. Remind that $sum limits_k=1^n frac1k^2 undersetn to inftylongrightarrow fracpi^26$. If we had $u_1 < 1-frac6pi^2$, $(u_n)$ would not be non-negative, and with $u_1 > 1-frac6pi^2$ it would not be the minimal solution (because a $u_1'$ between $1-frac6pi^2$ and $u_1$ would give a smaller solution).



                  That gives you $u_1 = 1-frac6pi^2$. The probability of going back to zero starting from $1$ is $1-frac6pi^2$. Additionnally, we found that the probabilty of going back to zero starting from $n$ is $1 - frac6pi^2 sum limits_k=1^n frac1k^2$.







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                  edited Mar 27 at 6:06

























                  answered Mar 26 at 15:05









                  Charles MadelineCharles Madeline

                  3,4501838




                  3,4501838





















                      0












                      $begingroup$

                      Hint 1: it's easier to find the probability of the complement event.



                      Hint 2: you can use the first entrance decomposition to write
                      $$
                      P(X_n = 0 text eventually) = sum_k=2^inftyP(tau_0 =k)
                      $$

                      where $tau_0 = infi ge 1 : X_i = 0 $.



                      Hint 3:
                      $P(tau_0 =k) = 0$ whenever $k$ is odd, and when it's not zero, it has a special form.






                      share|cite|improve this answer









                      $endgroup$

















                        0












                        $begingroup$

                        Hint 1: it's easier to find the probability of the complement event.



                        Hint 2: you can use the first entrance decomposition to write
                        $$
                        P(X_n = 0 text eventually) = sum_k=2^inftyP(tau_0 =k)
                        $$

                        where $tau_0 = infi ge 1 : X_i = 0 $.



                        Hint 3:
                        $P(tau_0 =k) = 0$ whenever $k$ is odd, and when it's not zero, it has a special form.






                        share|cite|improve this answer









                        $endgroup$















                          0












                          0








                          0





                          $begingroup$

                          Hint 1: it's easier to find the probability of the complement event.



                          Hint 2: you can use the first entrance decomposition to write
                          $$
                          P(X_n = 0 text eventually) = sum_k=2^inftyP(tau_0 =k)
                          $$

                          where $tau_0 = infi ge 1 : X_i = 0 $.



                          Hint 3:
                          $P(tau_0 =k) = 0$ whenever $k$ is odd, and when it's not zero, it has a special form.






                          share|cite|improve this answer









                          $endgroup$



                          Hint 1: it's easier to find the probability of the complement event.



                          Hint 2: you can use the first entrance decomposition to write
                          $$
                          P(X_n = 0 text eventually) = sum_k=2^inftyP(tau_0 =k)
                          $$

                          where $tau_0 = infi ge 1 : X_i = 0 $.



                          Hint 3:
                          $P(tau_0 =k) = 0$ whenever $k$ is odd, and when it's not zero, it has a special form.







                          share|cite|improve this answer












                          share|cite|improve this answer



                          share|cite|improve this answer










                          answered Mar 25 at 18:53









                          TaylorTaylor

                          297113




                          297113



























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