Conditional expectation conditioned both to a random variable and an event The Next CEO of Stack OverflowConditional expectation with respect to a continuous random variableIs it possible to intuitively explain why conditional probability/expectation depends on sigma algebraConditional expectation w.r.t. random variable and w.r.t. $sigma$-algebra, equivalenceInterpretation of conditional expectation as a random variableDistribution/law of a random variable after conditioning on an eventConditional expectation of a discrete random variableConditional expectation wrt random variableExpectation of a random variable over the variable's conditional value.Conditional expectation of normal distribution conditioned on meanConditional expectation given random variable and event

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Conditional expectation conditioned both to a random variable and an event



The Next CEO of Stack OverflowConditional expectation with respect to a continuous random variableIs it possible to intuitively explain why conditional probability/expectation depends on sigma algebraConditional expectation w.r.t. random variable and w.r.t. $sigma$-algebra, equivalenceInterpretation of conditional expectation as a random variableDistribution/law of a random variable after conditioning on an eventConditional expectation of a discrete random variableConditional expectation wrt random variableExpectation of a random variable over the variable's conditional value.Conditional expectation of normal distribution conditioned on meanConditional expectation given random variable and event










0












$begingroup$


Consider a uniform random variable $U$ in the interval $(0,1)$. Trivially we have that



$$mathbbE[X|X<tfrac12]=frac14.$$



Now, based on my intuition, I would like to say that $(X|X<tfrac12)$ conditioned on the random variable $X,$ is a uniform random variable in $(0,tfrac12).$



How do we formally write and prove it, in terms of the "conditional expectation" formalism?




Another point of view on the same problem is the following: consider the following expression for two dependent uniform random variables $U,V$ in $1,2,dots,n$:



$$mathbbP(U<V)=sum_mmathbbP(U<m|V=m)mathbbP(V=m)$$



If now I consider the conditional probability $mathbbP(U<V|U),$ I would like to generalize the previous expression to:



$$mathbbP(U<V|U)=sum_mmathbbP(U<m|V=m,U)mathbbP(V=m|U)$$



but I do not know how to exactly define the expression $mathbbP(U<m|V=m,U).$ Any help?










share|cite|improve this question











$endgroup$
















    0












    $begingroup$


    Consider a uniform random variable $U$ in the interval $(0,1)$. Trivially we have that



    $$mathbbE[X|X<tfrac12]=frac14.$$



    Now, based on my intuition, I would like to say that $(X|X<tfrac12)$ conditioned on the random variable $X,$ is a uniform random variable in $(0,tfrac12).$



    How do we formally write and prove it, in terms of the "conditional expectation" formalism?




    Another point of view on the same problem is the following: consider the following expression for two dependent uniform random variables $U,V$ in $1,2,dots,n$:



    $$mathbbP(U<V)=sum_mmathbbP(U<m|V=m)mathbbP(V=m)$$



    If now I consider the conditional probability $mathbbP(U<V|U),$ I would like to generalize the previous expression to:



    $$mathbbP(U<V|U)=sum_mmathbbP(U<m|V=m,U)mathbbP(V=m|U)$$



    but I do not know how to exactly define the expression $mathbbP(U<m|V=m,U).$ Any help?










    share|cite|improve this question











    $endgroup$














      0












      0








      0





      $begingroup$


      Consider a uniform random variable $U$ in the interval $(0,1)$. Trivially we have that



      $$mathbbE[X|X<tfrac12]=frac14.$$



      Now, based on my intuition, I would like to say that $(X|X<tfrac12)$ conditioned on the random variable $X,$ is a uniform random variable in $(0,tfrac12).$



      How do we formally write and prove it, in terms of the "conditional expectation" formalism?




      Another point of view on the same problem is the following: consider the following expression for two dependent uniform random variables $U,V$ in $1,2,dots,n$:



      $$mathbbP(U<V)=sum_mmathbbP(U<m|V=m)mathbbP(V=m)$$



      If now I consider the conditional probability $mathbbP(U<V|U),$ I would like to generalize the previous expression to:



      $$mathbbP(U<V|U)=sum_mmathbbP(U<m|V=m,U)mathbbP(V=m|U)$$



      but I do not know how to exactly define the expression $mathbbP(U<m|V=m,U).$ Any help?










      share|cite|improve this question











      $endgroup$




      Consider a uniform random variable $U$ in the interval $(0,1)$. Trivially we have that



      $$mathbbE[X|X<tfrac12]=frac14.$$



      Now, based on my intuition, I would like to say that $(X|X<tfrac12)$ conditioned on the random variable $X,$ is a uniform random variable in $(0,tfrac12).$



      How do we formally write and prove it, in terms of the "conditional expectation" formalism?




      Another point of view on the same problem is the following: consider the following expression for two dependent uniform random variables $U,V$ in $1,2,dots,n$:



      $$mathbbP(U<V)=sum_mmathbbP(U<m|V=m)mathbbP(V=m)$$



      If now I consider the conditional probability $mathbbP(U<V|U),$ I would like to generalize the previous expression to:



      $$mathbbP(U<V|U)=sum_mmathbbP(U<m|V=m,U)mathbbP(V=m|U)$$



      but I do not know how to exactly define the expression $mathbbP(U<m|V=m,U).$ Any help?







      probability-theory random-variables conditional-expectation conditional-probability






      share|cite|improve this question















      share|cite|improve this question













      share|cite|improve this question




      share|cite|improve this question








      edited Mar 6 at 19:46







      bojica

















      asked Mar 6 at 17:55









      bojicabojica

      282115




      282115




















          2 Answers
          2






          active

          oldest

          votes


















          1












          $begingroup$

          The conditional distribution of $X$ given the event $X < 1/2$ is indeed uniform on $[0, 1/2]$.



          One way is to show that for $t in [0, 1/2]$,
          $$P(X le t mid X < 1/2) = fracP(X le t, X < 1/2)P(X < 1/2) = 2 P(X le t) = 2t,$$
          which is the CDF of the uniform distribution on $[0, 1/2]$.




          Unfortunately, I do not understand what you mean by "$(X mid X < 1/2)$ conditioned on the random variable $X$." Once you condition on $X$, then $X$ is no longer random. Given that you were looking for something with the uniform distribution on $[0, 1/2]$, I suspect you wanted the above.






          share|cite|improve this answer









          $endgroup$












          • $begingroup$
            In some sense I'm wondering how to write the conditional random variable that has as law the conditional distribution that you wrote...
            $endgroup$
            – bojica
            Mar 6 at 18:35


















          1












          $begingroup$

          by definition, if $P(A)>0$ , $E(X|A)=fracE(XI_A)p(A)$ $hspace.5cm$ (1)



          by your note "in terms of the "conditional expectation" formalism?"



          you point that conditional probability defined based on conditional expectation.



          $P(Xleq a| X>3)=P(B| C)=E(I_B|C)=E(Z|C)
          =fracE(ZI_C)p(C)=fracE(I_BI_C)p(C)=fracE(I_Bcap C)p(C)=fracp(Bcap C)p(C)=fracp(Xleq acapX>3 )p(X>3 )$



          now it is clear to continue.



          for second topic:



          $P(U<V)=E(I_U<V)=E(Z)=EE(Z|V)
          =sum_t=1^n E(Z|V=t) p(V=t)=
          sum_t=1^n E(I_U<V|V=t)p(V=t)=
          sum_t=1^n E(I_U<t|V=t)p(V=t)=
          sum_t=1^n P(U<t|V=t)p(V=t)$



          note that by definition $E(Z|V)$ is a function of $V$



          if you want generalize it if follow this step



          $win R_w=uin 1,cdots , n,vin 1,cdots , n $



          $P(U<V)=E(I_U<V)=EE(I_U<V|W=(V,U))=
          EE(I_U<V|W)=sum_win R_w E(I_U<V|W=(V,U)=w) P(W=w)
          =sum_v=1^n sum_u=1^n E(I_U<V|(V=v,U=u)) P(V=v,U=u)
          =sum_v=1^n sum_u=1^n P(U<V|(V=v,U=u)) P(V=v,U=u)
          =sum_v=1^n sum_u=1^n P(U<V|(V=v,U=u)) P(V=v|U=u)P(U=u)
          $



          But Note $P(U<V|U)$ is not generalize previous step.
          $P(U<V|U)=P(A|U)=E(I_A|U)$ and
          $E(I_A|U=u) = sum_v=1^n I_A P(V=v|U=u)=
          sum_u<v,v=1^n P(V=v|U=u)=sum_v=u+1^n P(V=v|U=u)$



          you should explain more.






          share|cite|improve this answer











          $endgroup$













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            2 Answers
            2






            active

            oldest

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            2 Answers
            2






            active

            oldest

            votes









            active

            oldest

            votes






            active

            oldest

            votes









            1












            $begingroup$

            The conditional distribution of $X$ given the event $X < 1/2$ is indeed uniform on $[0, 1/2]$.



            One way is to show that for $t in [0, 1/2]$,
            $$P(X le t mid X < 1/2) = fracP(X le t, X < 1/2)P(X < 1/2) = 2 P(X le t) = 2t,$$
            which is the CDF of the uniform distribution on $[0, 1/2]$.




            Unfortunately, I do not understand what you mean by "$(X mid X < 1/2)$ conditioned on the random variable $X$." Once you condition on $X$, then $X$ is no longer random. Given that you were looking for something with the uniform distribution on $[0, 1/2]$, I suspect you wanted the above.






            share|cite|improve this answer









            $endgroup$












            • $begingroup$
              In some sense I'm wondering how to write the conditional random variable that has as law the conditional distribution that you wrote...
              $endgroup$
              – bojica
              Mar 6 at 18:35















            1












            $begingroup$

            The conditional distribution of $X$ given the event $X < 1/2$ is indeed uniform on $[0, 1/2]$.



            One way is to show that for $t in [0, 1/2]$,
            $$P(X le t mid X < 1/2) = fracP(X le t, X < 1/2)P(X < 1/2) = 2 P(X le t) = 2t,$$
            which is the CDF of the uniform distribution on $[0, 1/2]$.




            Unfortunately, I do not understand what you mean by "$(X mid X < 1/2)$ conditioned on the random variable $X$." Once you condition on $X$, then $X$ is no longer random. Given that you were looking for something with the uniform distribution on $[0, 1/2]$, I suspect you wanted the above.






            share|cite|improve this answer









            $endgroup$












            • $begingroup$
              In some sense I'm wondering how to write the conditional random variable that has as law the conditional distribution that you wrote...
              $endgroup$
              – bojica
              Mar 6 at 18:35













            1












            1








            1





            $begingroup$

            The conditional distribution of $X$ given the event $X < 1/2$ is indeed uniform on $[0, 1/2]$.



            One way is to show that for $t in [0, 1/2]$,
            $$P(X le t mid X < 1/2) = fracP(X le t, X < 1/2)P(X < 1/2) = 2 P(X le t) = 2t,$$
            which is the CDF of the uniform distribution on $[0, 1/2]$.




            Unfortunately, I do not understand what you mean by "$(X mid X < 1/2)$ conditioned on the random variable $X$." Once you condition on $X$, then $X$ is no longer random. Given that you were looking for something with the uniform distribution on $[0, 1/2]$, I suspect you wanted the above.






            share|cite|improve this answer









            $endgroup$



            The conditional distribution of $X$ given the event $X < 1/2$ is indeed uniform on $[0, 1/2]$.



            One way is to show that for $t in [0, 1/2]$,
            $$P(X le t mid X < 1/2) = fracP(X le t, X < 1/2)P(X < 1/2) = 2 P(X le t) = 2t,$$
            which is the CDF of the uniform distribution on $[0, 1/2]$.




            Unfortunately, I do not understand what you mean by "$(X mid X < 1/2)$ conditioned on the random variable $X$." Once you condition on $X$, then $X$ is no longer random. Given that you were looking for something with the uniform distribution on $[0, 1/2]$, I suspect you wanted the above.







            share|cite|improve this answer












            share|cite|improve this answer



            share|cite|improve this answer










            answered Mar 6 at 18:04









            angryavianangryavian

            42.4k23481




            42.4k23481











            • $begingroup$
              In some sense I'm wondering how to write the conditional random variable that has as law the conditional distribution that you wrote...
              $endgroup$
              – bojica
              Mar 6 at 18:35
















            • $begingroup$
              In some sense I'm wondering how to write the conditional random variable that has as law the conditional distribution that you wrote...
              $endgroup$
              – bojica
              Mar 6 at 18:35















            $begingroup$
            In some sense I'm wondering how to write the conditional random variable that has as law the conditional distribution that you wrote...
            $endgroup$
            – bojica
            Mar 6 at 18:35




            $begingroup$
            In some sense I'm wondering how to write the conditional random variable that has as law the conditional distribution that you wrote...
            $endgroup$
            – bojica
            Mar 6 at 18:35











            1












            $begingroup$

            by definition, if $P(A)>0$ , $E(X|A)=fracE(XI_A)p(A)$ $hspace.5cm$ (1)



            by your note "in terms of the "conditional expectation" formalism?"



            you point that conditional probability defined based on conditional expectation.



            $P(Xleq a| X>3)=P(B| C)=E(I_B|C)=E(Z|C)
            =fracE(ZI_C)p(C)=fracE(I_BI_C)p(C)=fracE(I_Bcap C)p(C)=fracp(Bcap C)p(C)=fracp(Xleq acapX>3 )p(X>3 )$



            now it is clear to continue.



            for second topic:



            $P(U<V)=E(I_U<V)=E(Z)=EE(Z|V)
            =sum_t=1^n E(Z|V=t) p(V=t)=
            sum_t=1^n E(I_U<V|V=t)p(V=t)=
            sum_t=1^n E(I_U<t|V=t)p(V=t)=
            sum_t=1^n P(U<t|V=t)p(V=t)$



            note that by definition $E(Z|V)$ is a function of $V$



            if you want generalize it if follow this step



            $win R_w=uin 1,cdots , n,vin 1,cdots , n $



            $P(U<V)=E(I_U<V)=EE(I_U<V|W=(V,U))=
            EE(I_U<V|W)=sum_win R_w E(I_U<V|W=(V,U)=w) P(W=w)
            =sum_v=1^n sum_u=1^n E(I_U<V|(V=v,U=u)) P(V=v,U=u)
            =sum_v=1^n sum_u=1^n P(U<V|(V=v,U=u)) P(V=v,U=u)
            =sum_v=1^n sum_u=1^n P(U<V|(V=v,U=u)) P(V=v|U=u)P(U=u)
            $



            But Note $P(U<V|U)$ is not generalize previous step.
            $P(U<V|U)=P(A|U)=E(I_A|U)$ and
            $E(I_A|U=u) = sum_v=1^n I_A P(V=v|U=u)=
            sum_u<v,v=1^n P(V=v|U=u)=sum_v=u+1^n P(V=v|U=u)$



            you should explain more.






            share|cite|improve this answer











            $endgroup$

















              1












              $begingroup$

              by definition, if $P(A)>0$ , $E(X|A)=fracE(XI_A)p(A)$ $hspace.5cm$ (1)



              by your note "in terms of the "conditional expectation" formalism?"



              you point that conditional probability defined based on conditional expectation.



              $P(Xleq a| X>3)=P(B| C)=E(I_B|C)=E(Z|C)
              =fracE(ZI_C)p(C)=fracE(I_BI_C)p(C)=fracE(I_Bcap C)p(C)=fracp(Bcap C)p(C)=fracp(Xleq acapX>3 )p(X>3 )$



              now it is clear to continue.



              for second topic:



              $P(U<V)=E(I_U<V)=E(Z)=EE(Z|V)
              =sum_t=1^n E(Z|V=t) p(V=t)=
              sum_t=1^n E(I_U<V|V=t)p(V=t)=
              sum_t=1^n E(I_U<t|V=t)p(V=t)=
              sum_t=1^n P(U<t|V=t)p(V=t)$



              note that by definition $E(Z|V)$ is a function of $V$



              if you want generalize it if follow this step



              $win R_w=uin 1,cdots , n,vin 1,cdots , n $



              $P(U<V)=E(I_U<V)=EE(I_U<V|W=(V,U))=
              EE(I_U<V|W)=sum_win R_w E(I_U<V|W=(V,U)=w) P(W=w)
              =sum_v=1^n sum_u=1^n E(I_U<V|(V=v,U=u)) P(V=v,U=u)
              =sum_v=1^n sum_u=1^n P(U<V|(V=v,U=u)) P(V=v,U=u)
              =sum_v=1^n sum_u=1^n P(U<V|(V=v,U=u)) P(V=v|U=u)P(U=u)
              $



              But Note $P(U<V|U)$ is not generalize previous step.
              $P(U<V|U)=P(A|U)=E(I_A|U)$ and
              $E(I_A|U=u) = sum_v=1^n I_A P(V=v|U=u)=
              sum_u<v,v=1^n P(V=v|U=u)=sum_v=u+1^n P(V=v|U=u)$



              you should explain more.






              share|cite|improve this answer











              $endgroup$















                1












                1








                1





                $begingroup$

                by definition, if $P(A)>0$ , $E(X|A)=fracE(XI_A)p(A)$ $hspace.5cm$ (1)



                by your note "in terms of the "conditional expectation" formalism?"



                you point that conditional probability defined based on conditional expectation.



                $P(Xleq a| X>3)=P(B| C)=E(I_B|C)=E(Z|C)
                =fracE(ZI_C)p(C)=fracE(I_BI_C)p(C)=fracE(I_Bcap C)p(C)=fracp(Bcap C)p(C)=fracp(Xleq acapX>3 )p(X>3 )$



                now it is clear to continue.



                for second topic:



                $P(U<V)=E(I_U<V)=E(Z)=EE(Z|V)
                =sum_t=1^n E(Z|V=t) p(V=t)=
                sum_t=1^n E(I_U<V|V=t)p(V=t)=
                sum_t=1^n E(I_U<t|V=t)p(V=t)=
                sum_t=1^n P(U<t|V=t)p(V=t)$



                note that by definition $E(Z|V)$ is a function of $V$



                if you want generalize it if follow this step



                $win R_w=uin 1,cdots , n,vin 1,cdots , n $



                $P(U<V)=E(I_U<V)=EE(I_U<V|W=(V,U))=
                EE(I_U<V|W)=sum_win R_w E(I_U<V|W=(V,U)=w) P(W=w)
                =sum_v=1^n sum_u=1^n E(I_U<V|(V=v,U=u)) P(V=v,U=u)
                =sum_v=1^n sum_u=1^n P(U<V|(V=v,U=u)) P(V=v,U=u)
                =sum_v=1^n sum_u=1^n P(U<V|(V=v,U=u)) P(V=v|U=u)P(U=u)
                $



                But Note $P(U<V|U)$ is not generalize previous step.
                $P(U<V|U)=P(A|U)=E(I_A|U)$ and
                $E(I_A|U=u) = sum_v=1^n I_A P(V=v|U=u)=
                sum_u<v,v=1^n P(V=v|U=u)=sum_v=u+1^n P(V=v|U=u)$



                you should explain more.






                share|cite|improve this answer











                $endgroup$



                by definition, if $P(A)>0$ , $E(X|A)=fracE(XI_A)p(A)$ $hspace.5cm$ (1)



                by your note "in terms of the "conditional expectation" formalism?"



                you point that conditional probability defined based on conditional expectation.



                $P(Xleq a| X>3)=P(B| C)=E(I_B|C)=E(Z|C)
                =fracE(ZI_C)p(C)=fracE(I_BI_C)p(C)=fracE(I_Bcap C)p(C)=fracp(Bcap C)p(C)=fracp(Xleq acapX>3 )p(X>3 )$



                now it is clear to continue.



                for second topic:



                $P(U<V)=E(I_U<V)=E(Z)=EE(Z|V)
                =sum_t=1^n E(Z|V=t) p(V=t)=
                sum_t=1^n E(I_U<V|V=t)p(V=t)=
                sum_t=1^n E(I_U<t|V=t)p(V=t)=
                sum_t=1^n P(U<t|V=t)p(V=t)$



                note that by definition $E(Z|V)$ is a function of $V$



                if you want generalize it if follow this step



                $win R_w=uin 1,cdots , n,vin 1,cdots , n $



                $P(U<V)=E(I_U<V)=EE(I_U<V|W=(V,U))=
                EE(I_U<V|W)=sum_win R_w E(I_U<V|W=(V,U)=w) P(W=w)
                =sum_v=1^n sum_u=1^n E(I_U<V|(V=v,U=u)) P(V=v,U=u)
                =sum_v=1^n sum_u=1^n P(U<V|(V=v,U=u)) P(V=v,U=u)
                =sum_v=1^n sum_u=1^n P(U<V|(V=v,U=u)) P(V=v|U=u)P(U=u)
                $



                But Note $P(U<V|U)$ is not generalize previous step.
                $P(U<V|U)=P(A|U)=E(I_A|U)$ and
                $E(I_A|U=u) = sum_v=1^n I_A P(V=v|U=u)=
                sum_u<v,v=1^n P(V=v|U=u)=sum_v=u+1^n P(V=v|U=u)$



                you should explain more.







                share|cite|improve this answer














                share|cite|improve this answer



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                edited Mar 18 at 18:30

























                answered Mar 18 at 17:05









                masoudmasoud

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