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Margin of error and average for a sample.


A poll carried a survey to examine the approval rate of a policy in a country. Which is most appropriate?Interpreting what this means in a paper - significantly different at the .05 level?How to find the +/- error of a radial average?Calculating the size of a sample from confidence intervalPoint estimate and margin of errorConfidence interval in comparing service timesStatistics probability confidence interval plants with weeks 1What's the difference — Point estimate with 95% margin of error and 95% confidence intervalNull hypothesis without significance levelOne sample binomial test?













1












$begingroup$


In a sample of Petri dishes the number of possible infectious microorganisms was counted, obtaining the following results after 11 counts.



3,6,7,2,4,7,8,9,10,2,5



I have to prove that.



I) The average number of microorganisms is significantly equal to 4.



Well,the average of this sample is equal to 5.72, but how do I find the significance?



II) The margin of error of the confidence interval is greater than 2.



I haven't worked with margin of error before but I searched and it says that for a CI it's the length divided by 2
For an $CI=[5.72-1.96sqrt(6.926),5.72+1.96sqrt(6.926)] $, so the length is 10.25 and divided by two the margin error is 5.12.



Is this right?



UPDATE:
For the part I) I was thinking about the CI, but this time using the t distributions because of the size of the sample. So if 4 belongs to the CI is significative?










share|cite|improve this question











$endgroup$







  • 1




    $begingroup$
    What is the model for the number of microorganisms in a Petri dish? If it's a Poisson distribution, the observed counts seem kind of low to warrant the use of Normal approximation for the confidence interval.
    $endgroup$
    – Lee David Chung Lin
    Mar 13 at 22:28















1












$begingroup$


In a sample of Petri dishes the number of possible infectious microorganisms was counted, obtaining the following results after 11 counts.



3,6,7,2,4,7,8,9,10,2,5



I have to prove that.



I) The average number of microorganisms is significantly equal to 4.



Well,the average of this sample is equal to 5.72, but how do I find the significance?



II) The margin of error of the confidence interval is greater than 2.



I haven't worked with margin of error before but I searched and it says that for a CI it's the length divided by 2
For an $CI=[5.72-1.96sqrt(6.926),5.72+1.96sqrt(6.926)] $, so the length is 10.25 and divided by two the margin error is 5.12.



Is this right?



UPDATE:
For the part I) I was thinking about the CI, but this time using the t distributions because of the size of the sample. So if 4 belongs to the CI is significative?










share|cite|improve this question











$endgroup$







  • 1




    $begingroup$
    What is the model for the number of microorganisms in a Petri dish? If it's a Poisson distribution, the observed counts seem kind of low to warrant the use of Normal approximation for the confidence interval.
    $endgroup$
    – Lee David Chung Lin
    Mar 13 at 22:28













1












1








1





$begingroup$


In a sample of Petri dishes the number of possible infectious microorganisms was counted, obtaining the following results after 11 counts.



3,6,7,2,4,7,8,9,10,2,5



I have to prove that.



I) The average number of microorganisms is significantly equal to 4.



Well,the average of this sample is equal to 5.72, but how do I find the significance?



II) The margin of error of the confidence interval is greater than 2.



I haven't worked with margin of error before but I searched and it says that for a CI it's the length divided by 2
For an $CI=[5.72-1.96sqrt(6.926),5.72+1.96sqrt(6.926)] $, so the length is 10.25 and divided by two the margin error is 5.12.



Is this right?



UPDATE:
For the part I) I was thinking about the CI, but this time using the t distributions because of the size of the sample. So if 4 belongs to the CI is significative?










share|cite|improve this question











$endgroup$




In a sample of Petri dishes the number of possible infectious microorganisms was counted, obtaining the following results after 11 counts.



3,6,7,2,4,7,8,9,10,2,5



I have to prove that.



I) The average number of microorganisms is significantly equal to 4.



Well,the average of this sample is equal to 5.72, but how do I find the significance?



II) The margin of error of the confidence interval is greater than 2.



I haven't worked with margin of error before but I searched and it says that for a CI it's the length divided by 2
For an $CI=[5.72-1.96sqrt(6.926),5.72+1.96sqrt(6.926)] $, so the length is 10.25 and divided by two the margin error is 5.12.



Is this right?



UPDATE:
For the part I) I was thinking about the CI, but this time using the t distributions because of the size of the sample. So if 4 belongs to the CI is significative?







probability statistical-inference






share|cite|improve this question















share|cite|improve this question













share|cite|improve this question




share|cite|improve this question








edited Mar 13 at 19:04







Lexie Walker

















asked Mar 13 at 18:16









Lexie WalkerLexie Walker

1717




1717







  • 1




    $begingroup$
    What is the model for the number of microorganisms in a Petri dish? If it's a Poisson distribution, the observed counts seem kind of low to warrant the use of Normal approximation for the confidence interval.
    $endgroup$
    – Lee David Chung Lin
    Mar 13 at 22:28












  • 1




    $begingroup$
    What is the model for the number of microorganisms in a Petri dish? If it's a Poisson distribution, the observed counts seem kind of low to warrant the use of Normal approximation for the confidence interval.
    $endgroup$
    – Lee David Chung Lin
    Mar 13 at 22:28







1




1




$begingroup$
What is the model for the number of microorganisms in a Petri dish? If it's a Poisson distribution, the observed counts seem kind of low to warrant the use of Normal approximation for the confidence interval.
$endgroup$
– Lee David Chung Lin
Mar 13 at 22:28




$begingroup$
What is the model for the number of microorganisms in a Petri dish? If it's a Poisson distribution, the observed counts seem kind of low to warrant the use of Normal approximation for the confidence interval.
$endgroup$
– Lee David Chung Lin
Mar 13 at 22:28










1 Answer
1






active

oldest

votes


















0












$begingroup$

By doing a test, you cannot "prove" anything in a strictly mathematical sense.
Also, you seem to be doing one-sample t procedures [or possibly z procedures], and there seems to be
no reason to believe that the data are from a normal population.



Nevertheless, t procedures are not extremely sensitive to non-normality unless the sample is severely skewed or shows far outliers, which your sample does not. [It would be incorrect to use z procedures here because the population standard deviation $sigma$ is unknown.]



Here is a boxplot of your eleven observations:



enter image description here



Below are results from a one-sample t test in R statistical software, which also gives a 95% confidence interval for the population mean $mu$
(along with a few related computations).



Test of hypothesis: The null hypothesis is $H_0: mu = 4$ and the alternative hypothesis is $H_a: mu ne 4.$ The P-value (0.065) exceeds 0.05, so results are "consistent with" $H_0$ at the 5% level of significance. In other words $H_0$ cannot be rejected at the 5% level.



Confidence interval: This does not imply that $mu = 4,$ only that we have no evidence that
$mu ne 4.$ Indeed, the 95% confidence interval $(3.87, 7.58)$ indicates that values $4.0 pm 3.58$ should be considered as realistic
values of $mu.$ The margin of error $M = 3.58$ does indeed exceed 2.



You are correct that the sample mean is $bar X = 5.72,$ but the sample standard deviation is $S = 2.76,$ which does not seem to match what you have. The correct method of computing the CI is $bar X pm t^*S/sqrt11,$ where $t^* = 2.228$ cuts 2.5% of the probability from the upper
tail of Student's t distribution with $n - 1 = 11 - 1 = 10$ degrees of
freedom.



Output from R statistical software:



t.test(x, mu=4)

One Sample t-test

data: x
t = 2.0755, df = 10, p-value = 0.06468
alternative hypothesis: true mean is not equal to 4
95 percent confidence interval:
3.873009 7.581537
sample estimates:
mean of x
5.727273

sd(x)
## 2.760105
qt(.975, 10)
## 2.228139
mean(x) + pm*qt(.975, 10)*sd(x)/sqrt(11)
## 3.873009 7.581537 # matches CI in output from t.test


Note: (1) Below is a printout from Minitab statistical software
showing the t test and confidence interval. This output agrees with the output from R.



One-Sample T: x 

Test of μ = 4 vs ≠ 4

Variable N Mean StDev SE Mean 95% CI T P
x 11 5.727 2.760 0.832 (3.873, 7.582) 2.08 0.065


(2) In case you are concerned about using a t confidence interval for data not known to be normal, a 95% Wilcoxon confidence interval
for the population median $eta$ is $(3.50, 8.00),$ which exceeds 4 units in length. This procedure assumes symmetry of the population, but not normality. Also, a 95% nonparametric bootstrap confidence interval for $mu$ is $(4.18, 7.27),$ which makes no assumption of normality. However, bootstrap procedures on samples as small as $n = 11$ are of dubious accuracy.






share|cite|improve this answer











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    $begingroup$

    By doing a test, you cannot "prove" anything in a strictly mathematical sense.
    Also, you seem to be doing one-sample t procedures [or possibly z procedures], and there seems to be
    no reason to believe that the data are from a normal population.



    Nevertheless, t procedures are not extremely sensitive to non-normality unless the sample is severely skewed or shows far outliers, which your sample does not. [It would be incorrect to use z procedures here because the population standard deviation $sigma$ is unknown.]



    Here is a boxplot of your eleven observations:



    enter image description here



    Below are results from a one-sample t test in R statistical software, which also gives a 95% confidence interval for the population mean $mu$
    (along with a few related computations).



    Test of hypothesis: The null hypothesis is $H_0: mu = 4$ and the alternative hypothesis is $H_a: mu ne 4.$ The P-value (0.065) exceeds 0.05, so results are "consistent with" $H_0$ at the 5% level of significance. In other words $H_0$ cannot be rejected at the 5% level.



    Confidence interval: This does not imply that $mu = 4,$ only that we have no evidence that
    $mu ne 4.$ Indeed, the 95% confidence interval $(3.87, 7.58)$ indicates that values $4.0 pm 3.58$ should be considered as realistic
    values of $mu.$ The margin of error $M = 3.58$ does indeed exceed 2.



    You are correct that the sample mean is $bar X = 5.72,$ but the sample standard deviation is $S = 2.76,$ which does not seem to match what you have. The correct method of computing the CI is $bar X pm t^*S/sqrt11,$ where $t^* = 2.228$ cuts 2.5% of the probability from the upper
    tail of Student's t distribution with $n - 1 = 11 - 1 = 10$ degrees of
    freedom.



    Output from R statistical software:



    t.test(x, mu=4)

    One Sample t-test

    data: x
    t = 2.0755, df = 10, p-value = 0.06468
    alternative hypothesis: true mean is not equal to 4
    95 percent confidence interval:
    3.873009 7.581537
    sample estimates:
    mean of x
    5.727273

    sd(x)
    ## 2.760105
    qt(.975, 10)
    ## 2.228139
    mean(x) + pm*qt(.975, 10)*sd(x)/sqrt(11)
    ## 3.873009 7.581537 # matches CI in output from t.test


    Note: (1) Below is a printout from Minitab statistical software
    showing the t test and confidence interval. This output agrees with the output from R.



    One-Sample T: x 

    Test of μ = 4 vs ≠ 4

    Variable N Mean StDev SE Mean 95% CI T P
    x 11 5.727 2.760 0.832 (3.873, 7.582) 2.08 0.065


    (2) In case you are concerned about using a t confidence interval for data not known to be normal, a 95% Wilcoxon confidence interval
    for the population median $eta$ is $(3.50, 8.00),$ which exceeds 4 units in length. This procedure assumes symmetry of the population, but not normality. Also, a 95% nonparametric bootstrap confidence interval for $mu$ is $(4.18, 7.27),$ which makes no assumption of normality. However, bootstrap procedures on samples as small as $n = 11$ are of dubious accuracy.






    share|cite|improve this answer











    $endgroup$

















      0












      $begingroup$

      By doing a test, you cannot "prove" anything in a strictly mathematical sense.
      Also, you seem to be doing one-sample t procedures [or possibly z procedures], and there seems to be
      no reason to believe that the data are from a normal population.



      Nevertheless, t procedures are not extremely sensitive to non-normality unless the sample is severely skewed or shows far outliers, which your sample does not. [It would be incorrect to use z procedures here because the population standard deviation $sigma$ is unknown.]



      Here is a boxplot of your eleven observations:



      enter image description here



      Below are results from a one-sample t test in R statistical software, which also gives a 95% confidence interval for the population mean $mu$
      (along with a few related computations).



      Test of hypothesis: The null hypothesis is $H_0: mu = 4$ and the alternative hypothesis is $H_a: mu ne 4.$ The P-value (0.065) exceeds 0.05, so results are "consistent with" $H_0$ at the 5% level of significance. In other words $H_0$ cannot be rejected at the 5% level.



      Confidence interval: This does not imply that $mu = 4,$ only that we have no evidence that
      $mu ne 4.$ Indeed, the 95% confidence interval $(3.87, 7.58)$ indicates that values $4.0 pm 3.58$ should be considered as realistic
      values of $mu.$ The margin of error $M = 3.58$ does indeed exceed 2.



      You are correct that the sample mean is $bar X = 5.72,$ but the sample standard deviation is $S = 2.76,$ which does not seem to match what you have. The correct method of computing the CI is $bar X pm t^*S/sqrt11,$ where $t^* = 2.228$ cuts 2.5% of the probability from the upper
      tail of Student's t distribution with $n - 1 = 11 - 1 = 10$ degrees of
      freedom.



      Output from R statistical software:



      t.test(x, mu=4)

      One Sample t-test

      data: x
      t = 2.0755, df = 10, p-value = 0.06468
      alternative hypothesis: true mean is not equal to 4
      95 percent confidence interval:
      3.873009 7.581537
      sample estimates:
      mean of x
      5.727273

      sd(x)
      ## 2.760105
      qt(.975, 10)
      ## 2.228139
      mean(x) + pm*qt(.975, 10)*sd(x)/sqrt(11)
      ## 3.873009 7.581537 # matches CI in output from t.test


      Note: (1) Below is a printout from Minitab statistical software
      showing the t test and confidence interval. This output agrees with the output from R.



      One-Sample T: x 

      Test of μ = 4 vs ≠ 4

      Variable N Mean StDev SE Mean 95% CI T P
      x 11 5.727 2.760 0.832 (3.873, 7.582) 2.08 0.065


      (2) In case you are concerned about using a t confidence interval for data not known to be normal, a 95% Wilcoxon confidence interval
      for the population median $eta$ is $(3.50, 8.00),$ which exceeds 4 units in length. This procedure assumes symmetry of the population, but not normality. Also, a 95% nonparametric bootstrap confidence interval for $mu$ is $(4.18, 7.27),$ which makes no assumption of normality. However, bootstrap procedures on samples as small as $n = 11$ are of dubious accuracy.






      share|cite|improve this answer











      $endgroup$















        0












        0








        0





        $begingroup$

        By doing a test, you cannot "prove" anything in a strictly mathematical sense.
        Also, you seem to be doing one-sample t procedures [or possibly z procedures], and there seems to be
        no reason to believe that the data are from a normal population.



        Nevertheless, t procedures are not extremely sensitive to non-normality unless the sample is severely skewed or shows far outliers, which your sample does not. [It would be incorrect to use z procedures here because the population standard deviation $sigma$ is unknown.]



        Here is a boxplot of your eleven observations:



        enter image description here



        Below are results from a one-sample t test in R statistical software, which also gives a 95% confidence interval for the population mean $mu$
        (along with a few related computations).



        Test of hypothesis: The null hypothesis is $H_0: mu = 4$ and the alternative hypothesis is $H_a: mu ne 4.$ The P-value (0.065) exceeds 0.05, so results are "consistent with" $H_0$ at the 5% level of significance. In other words $H_0$ cannot be rejected at the 5% level.



        Confidence interval: This does not imply that $mu = 4,$ only that we have no evidence that
        $mu ne 4.$ Indeed, the 95% confidence interval $(3.87, 7.58)$ indicates that values $4.0 pm 3.58$ should be considered as realistic
        values of $mu.$ The margin of error $M = 3.58$ does indeed exceed 2.



        You are correct that the sample mean is $bar X = 5.72,$ but the sample standard deviation is $S = 2.76,$ which does not seem to match what you have. The correct method of computing the CI is $bar X pm t^*S/sqrt11,$ where $t^* = 2.228$ cuts 2.5% of the probability from the upper
        tail of Student's t distribution with $n - 1 = 11 - 1 = 10$ degrees of
        freedom.



        Output from R statistical software:



        t.test(x, mu=4)

        One Sample t-test

        data: x
        t = 2.0755, df = 10, p-value = 0.06468
        alternative hypothesis: true mean is not equal to 4
        95 percent confidence interval:
        3.873009 7.581537
        sample estimates:
        mean of x
        5.727273

        sd(x)
        ## 2.760105
        qt(.975, 10)
        ## 2.228139
        mean(x) + pm*qt(.975, 10)*sd(x)/sqrt(11)
        ## 3.873009 7.581537 # matches CI in output from t.test


        Note: (1) Below is a printout from Minitab statistical software
        showing the t test and confidence interval. This output agrees with the output from R.



        One-Sample T: x 

        Test of μ = 4 vs ≠ 4

        Variable N Mean StDev SE Mean 95% CI T P
        x 11 5.727 2.760 0.832 (3.873, 7.582) 2.08 0.065


        (2) In case you are concerned about using a t confidence interval for data not known to be normal, a 95% Wilcoxon confidence interval
        for the population median $eta$ is $(3.50, 8.00),$ which exceeds 4 units in length. This procedure assumes symmetry of the population, but not normality. Also, a 95% nonparametric bootstrap confidence interval for $mu$ is $(4.18, 7.27),$ which makes no assumption of normality. However, bootstrap procedures on samples as small as $n = 11$ are of dubious accuracy.






        share|cite|improve this answer











        $endgroup$



        By doing a test, you cannot "prove" anything in a strictly mathematical sense.
        Also, you seem to be doing one-sample t procedures [or possibly z procedures], and there seems to be
        no reason to believe that the data are from a normal population.



        Nevertheless, t procedures are not extremely sensitive to non-normality unless the sample is severely skewed or shows far outliers, which your sample does not. [It would be incorrect to use z procedures here because the population standard deviation $sigma$ is unknown.]



        Here is a boxplot of your eleven observations:



        enter image description here



        Below are results from a one-sample t test in R statistical software, which also gives a 95% confidence interval for the population mean $mu$
        (along with a few related computations).



        Test of hypothesis: The null hypothesis is $H_0: mu = 4$ and the alternative hypothesis is $H_a: mu ne 4.$ The P-value (0.065) exceeds 0.05, so results are "consistent with" $H_0$ at the 5% level of significance. In other words $H_0$ cannot be rejected at the 5% level.



        Confidence interval: This does not imply that $mu = 4,$ only that we have no evidence that
        $mu ne 4.$ Indeed, the 95% confidence interval $(3.87, 7.58)$ indicates that values $4.0 pm 3.58$ should be considered as realistic
        values of $mu.$ The margin of error $M = 3.58$ does indeed exceed 2.



        You are correct that the sample mean is $bar X = 5.72,$ but the sample standard deviation is $S = 2.76,$ which does not seem to match what you have. The correct method of computing the CI is $bar X pm t^*S/sqrt11,$ where $t^* = 2.228$ cuts 2.5% of the probability from the upper
        tail of Student's t distribution with $n - 1 = 11 - 1 = 10$ degrees of
        freedom.



        Output from R statistical software:



        t.test(x, mu=4)

        One Sample t-test

        data: x
        t = 2.0755, df = 10, p-value = 0.06468
        alternative hypothesis: true mean is not equal to 4
        95 percent confidence interval:
        3.873009 7.581537
        sample estimates:
        mean of x
        5.727273

        sd(x)
        ## 2.760105
        qt(.975, 10)
        ## 2.228139
        mean(x) + pm*qt(.975, 10)*sd(x)/sqrt(11)
        ## 3.873009 7.581537 # matches CI in output from t.test


        Note: (1) Below is a printout from Minitab statistical software
        showing the t test and confidence interval. This output agrees with the output from R.



        One-Sample T: x 

        Test of μ = 4 vs ≠ 4

        Variable N Mean StDev SE Mean 95% CI T P
        x 11 5.727 2.760 0.832 (3.873, 7.582) 2.08 0.065


        (2) In case you are concerned about using a t confidence interval for data not known to be normal, a 95% Wilcoxon confidence interval
        for the population median $eta$ is $(3.50, 8.00),$ which exceeds 4 units in length. This procedure assumes symmetry of the population, but not normality. Also, a 95% nonparametric bootstrap confidence interval for $mu$ is $(4.18, 7.27),$ which makes no assumption of normality. However, bootstrap procedures on samples as small as $n = 11$ are of dubious accuracy.







        share|cite|improve this answer














        share|cite|improve this answer



        share|cite|improve this answer








        edited Mar 15 at 23:53

























        answered Mar 15 at 23:10









        BruceETBruceET

        36k71540




        36k71540



























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