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-2

$begingroup$

I'll start by saying this is for a video game, for which some statistics are well established. One of these statistics is the chance that a gather point will spawn, and then the chance that a single gather at the location will result in a list of items. These probabilities are already in percent form, so I don't need to calculate their probabilities.

The tricky bit for me is trying to calculate an any-one-in-all probability. I found this suggestion on how to calculate the probability of this scenario simply, but it didn't make sense in certain scenarios:

Base formula: 100% - ((100% - probability) ^ gather_chances)

This seems to give me more reasonable suggestions, but the probabilities still seem rather high, given my experience in the game. Thanks for any help.

Game data

Python code being used

probability

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asked 2 days ago

SolonotixSolonotix

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-2

$begingroup$

I'll start by saying this is for a video game, for which some statistics are well established. One of these statistics is the chance that a gather point will spawn, and then the chance that a single gather at the location will result in a list of items. These probabilities are already in percent form, so I don't need to calculate their probabilities.

The tricky bit for me is trying to calculate an any-one-in-all probability. I found this suggestion on how to calculate the probability of this scenario simply, but it didn't make sense in certain scenarios:

Base formula: 100% - ((100% - probability) ^ gather_chances)

This seems to give me more reasonable suggestions, but the probabilities still seem rather high, given my experience in the game. Thanks for any help.

Game data

Python code being used

probability

share|cite|improve this question

asked 2 days ago

SolonotixSolonotix

1

New contributor

Solonotix is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.

$endgroup$

add a comment | 

$begingroup$

I'll start by saying this is for a video game, for which some statistics are well established. One of these statistics is the chance that a gather point will spawn, and then the chance that a single gather at the location will result in a list of items. These probabilities are already in percent form, so I don't need to calculate their probabilities.

The tricky bit for me is trying to calculate an any-one-in-all probability. I found this suggestion on how to calculate the probability of this scenario simply, but it didn't make sense in certain scenarios:

Base formula: 100% - ((100% - probability) ^ gather_chances)

This seems to give me more reasonable suggestions, but the probabilities still seem rather high, given my experience in the game. Thanks for any help.

Game data

Python code being used

probability

share|cite|improve this question

asked 2 days ago

SolonotixSolonotix

1

New contributor

Solonotix is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.

$endgroup$

share|cite|improve this question

asked 2 days ago

SolonotixSolonotix

1

New contributor

Solonotix is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.

share|cite|improve this question

asked 2 days ago

SolonotixSolonotix

1

New contributor

Solonotix is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.

asked 2 days ago

SolonotixSolonotix

1

New contributor

Solonotix is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.

asked 2 days ago

SolonotixSolonotix

1