Probability of matching 5 cards from a deck of 40probability about playing a deck of cardsWhat is the probability that all 4 cards have different value?Probability in deck of only face cards.Probability of drawing >18 when drawing 3 cardsProbability of cards out of a deck52 cards are randomly drawn one by one and without replacement. What is the probability that an ace will appear before any of the cards 2 through 10?Probability of picking 2 queens and 1 king from a deck of cardsFinding expected value of number of kings drawn before the first Ace and its lower bound?a deck of cards has 54 cards…Expected number of cards needed to draw from 52 card deck to get a pair

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Probability of matching 5 cards from a deck of 40


probability about playing a deck of cardsWhat is the probability that all 4 cards have different value?Probability in deck of only face cards.Probability of drawing >18 when drawing 3 cardsProbability of cards out of a deck52 cards are randomly drawn one by one and without replacement. What is the probability that an ace will appear before any of the cards 2 through 10?Probability of picking 2 queens and 1 king from a deck of cardsFinding expected value of number of kings drawn before the first Ace and its lower bound?a deck of cards has 54 cards…Expected number of cards needed to draw from 52 card deck to get a pair













3












$begingroup$


Suppose we have a deck of 40 cards which has, 5 Aces, 6 Kings, 9 Queens, 20 Jacks. A game is played where a contestant will continuously draw cards until they have 5 matching cards (not necessarily in order). The cards are drawn without replacement.



I'm trying to find the probability of the contestant getting the five matching cards they get are all Aces (i.e. they have to get this before they get any other five matching cards).



Does anyone have any idea on how to approach this?










share|cite|improve this question









$endgroup$
















    3












    $begingroup$


    Suppose we have a deck of 40 cards which has, 5 Aces, 6 Kings, 9 Queens, 20 Jacks. A game is played where a contestant will continuously draw cards until they have 5 matching cards (not necessarily in order). The cards are drawn without replacement.



    I'm trying to find the probability of the contestant getting the five matching cards they get are all Aces (i.e. they have to get this before they get any other five matching cards).



    Does anyone have any idea on how to approach this?










    share|cite|improve this question









    $endgroup$














      3












      3








      3


      2



      $begingroup$


      Suppose we have a deck of 40 cards which has, 5 Aces, 6 Kings, 9 Queens, 20 Jacks. A game is played where a contestant will continuously draw cards until they have 5 matching cards (not necessarily in order). The cards are drawn without replacement.



      I'm trying to find the probability of the contestant getting the five matching cards they get are all Aces (i.e. they have to get this before they get any other five matching cards).



      Does anyone have any idea on how to approach this?










      share|cite|improve this question









      $endgroup$




      Suppose we have a deck of 40 cards which has, 5 Aces, 6 Kings, 9 Queens, 20 Jacks. A game is played where a contestant will continuously draw cards until they have 5 matching cards (not necessarily in order). The cards are drawn without replacement.



      I'm trying to find the probability of the contestant getting the five matching cards they get are all Aces (i.e. they have to get this before they get any other five matching cards).



      Does anyone have any idea on how to approach this?







      probability






      share|cite|improve this question













      share|cite|improve this question











      share|cite|improve this question




      share|cite|improve this question










      asked 16 hours ago









      DH.DH.

      59115




      59115




















          1 Answer
          1






          active

          oldest

          votes


















          3












          $begingroup$

          Suppose a win occurs when the fifth ace is drawn on draw $r+1$, for $0 le r le 16$. On the previous draw, the hand must have contained four aces and no more than four of any of the other ranks, and then the contestant must draw an ace on draw $r+1$.



          Let's try to find the probability of being in a favorable state on draw $r$. There are $binom40r$ possible hands of $r$ cards, all of which we assume are equally likely. We would like to count the number of hands containing exactly four aces and no more than four of any other rank, which we will call a "favorable hand". To do this, we will find the generating function of the number of favorable hands. Numbering the ranks from ace to jack as $1$ through $4$, let's say $n_i$ is the initial number of cards in the deck of rank $i$, for $i=1,2,3,4$, so $n_1 = 5$, $n_2=6$, etc. If we consider only cards of rank $i$, then the generating function for the number of hands containing zero to four of those cards is
          $$sum_j=0^4 binomn_ij x^j$$
          The generating function for the number of ways to draw exactly four aces is simply $binom54x^4$; so the generating function for the number of favorable hands containing cards of all ranks is
          $$f(x) = binom54x^4 prod_i=2^4 sum_j=0^4 binomn_ij x^j$$
          I.e., the coefficient of $x^r$ when $f(x)$ is expanded, which which we will denote by $[x^r]f(x)$, is the number of hands containing exactly four aces and no more than four of any other rank. After some computation (I used Mathematica, but a pencil and paper computation should not be difficult),
          $$f(x) = 5 x^4+175 x^5+2975 x^6+32725 x^7+261800 x^8+ \
          1544980 x^9+6741525 x^10+21960225
          x^11+53723775 x^12+ \ 96756975 x^13+122906250 x^14 +102343500
          x^15+45785250 x^16$$



          The probability of a favorable hand of $r$ cards is then
          $$frac[x^r]f(x)binom40r$$
          In order to win on draw $r+1$ the player must have a favorable hand on draw $r$ and then draw an ace on draw $r+1$, when there is one ace left in the deck and $40-r$ cards total. So the probability of a win on draw $r+1$ is
          $$frac[x^r]f(x)binom40r cdot frac140-r$$
          and the overall probability of winning is
          $$sum_r=0^16 frac[x^r]f(x)binom40r cdot frac140-r = boxed0.00194347$$






          share|cite|improve this answer











          $endgroup$












          • $begingroup$
            @user What do you mean by $p_1$?
            $endgroup$
            – awkward
            10 hours ago










          • $begingroup$
            @user Oh I see, you mean $p_i$ is the probability that rank $i$ is the first rank to get 5 cards. I haven't computed those other probabilities, but the probability I computed for aces is consistent with Monte Carlo results, so I'm pretty sure it's correct. If you see something wrong with the solution, please be specific.
            $endgroup$
            – awkward
            9 hours ago










          • $begingroup$
            @user OK, what are your numbers?
            $endgroup$
            – awkward
            9 hours ago










          • $begingroup$
            @awkward my monte carlo simulation comes up with the same answer as you awkward. Do you have any material to read about generating functions as I have not come across them before?
            $endgroup$
            – DH.
            8 hours ago











          • $begingroup$
            @DH. I would recommend actuarial course notes (if you can get your hands on them) great source for material on generating functions!
            $endgroup$
            – The Problem
            8 hours ago










          Your Answer





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          1 Answer
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          1 Answer
          1






          active

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          active

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          active

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          3












          $begingroup$

          Suppose a win occurs when the fifth ace is drawn on draw $r+1$, for $0 le r le 16$. On the previous draw, the hand must have contained four aces and no more than four of any of the other ranks, and then the contestant must draw an ace on draw $r+1$.



          Let's try to find the probability of being in a favorable state on draw $r$. There are $binom40r$ possible hands of $r$ cards, all of which we assume are equally likely. We would like to count the number of hands containing exactly four aces and no more than four of any other rank, which we will call a "favorable hand". To do this, we will find the generating function of the number of favorable hands. Numbering the ranks from ace to jack as $1$ through $4$, let's say $n_i$ is the initial number of cards in the deck of rank $i$, for $i=1,2,3,4$, so $n_1 = 5$, $n_2=6$, etc. If we consider only cards of rank $i$, then the generating function for the number of hands containing zero to four of those cards is
          $$sum_j=0^4 binomn_ij x^j$$
          The generating function for the number of ways to draw exactly four aces is simply $binom54x^4$; so the generating function for the number of favorable hands containing cards of all ranks is
          $$f(x) = binom54x^4 prod_i=2^4 sum_j=0^4 binomn_ij x^j$$
          I.e., the coefficient of $x^r$ when $f(x)$ is expanded, which which we will denote by $[x^r]f(x)$, is the number of hands containing exactly four aces and no more than four of any other rank. After some computation (I used Mathematica, but a pencil and paper computation should not be difficult),
          $$f(x) = 5 x^4+175 x^5+2975 x^6+32725 x^7+261800 x^8+ \
          1544980 x^9+6741525 x^10+21960225
          x^11+53723775 x^12+ \ 96756975 x^13+122906250 x^14 +102343500
          x^15+45785250 x^16$$



          The probability of a favorable hand of $r$ cards is then
          $$frac[x^r]f(x)binom40r$$
          In order to win on draw $r+1$ the player must have a favorable hand on draw $r$ and then draw an ace on draw $r+1$, when there is one ace left in the deck and $40-r$ cards total. So the probability of a win on draw $r+1$ is
          $$frac[x^r]f(x)binom40r cdot frac140-r$$
          and the overall probability of winning is
          $$sum_r=0^16 frac[x^r]f(x)binom40r cdot frac140-r = boxed0.00194347$$






          share|cite|improve this answer











          $endgroup$












          • $begingroup$
            @user What do you mean by $p_1$?
            $endgroup$
            – awkward
            10 hours ago










          • $begingroup$
            @user Oh I see, you mean $p_i$ is the probability that rank $i$ is the first rank to get 5 cards. I haven't computed those other probabilities, but the probability I computed for aces is consistent with Monte Carlo results, so I'm pretty sure it's correct. If you see something wrong with the solution, please be specific.
            $endgroup$
            – awkward
            9 hours ago










          • $begingroup$
            @user OK, what are your numbers?
            $endgroup$
            – awkward
            9 hours ago










          • $begingroup$
            @awkward my monte carlo simulation comes up with the same answer as you awkward. Do you have any material to read about generating functions as I have not come across them before?
            $endgroup$
            – DH.
            8 hours ago











          • $begingroup$
            @DH. I would recommend actuarial course notes (if you can get your hands on them) great source for material on generating functions!
            $endgroup$
            – The Problem
            8 hours ago















          3












          $begingroup$

          Suppose a win occurs when the fifth ace is drawn on draw $r+1$, for $0 le r le 16$. On the previous draw, the hand must have contained four aces and no more than four of any of the other ranks, and then the contestant must draw an ace on draw $r+1$.



          Let's try to find the probability of being in a favorable state on draw $r$. There are $binom40r$ possible hands of $r$ cards, all of which we assume are equally likely. We would like to count the number of hands containing exactly four aces and no more than four of any other rank, which we will call a "favorable hand". To do this, we will find the generating function of the number of favorable hands. Numbering the ranks from ace to jack as $1$ through $4$, let's say $n_i$ is the initial number of cards in the deck of rank $i$, for $i=1,2,3,4$, so $n_1 = 5$, $n_2=6$, etc. If we consider only cards of rank $i$, then the generating function for the number of hands containing zero to four of those cards is
          $$sum_j=0^4 binomn_ij x^j$$
          The generating function for the number of ways to draw exactly four aces is simply $binom54x^4$; so the generating function for the number of favorable hands containing cards of all ranks is
          $$f(x) = binom54x^4 prod_i=2^4 sum_j=0^4 binomn_ij x^j$$
          I.e., the coefficient of $x^r$ when $f(x)$ is expanded, which which we will denote by $[x^r]f(x)$, is the number of hands containing exactly four aces and no more than four of any other rank. After some computation (I used Mathematica, but a pencil and paper computation should not be difficult),
          $$f(x) = 5 x^4+175 x^5+2975 x^6+32725 x^7+261800 x^8+ \
          1544980 x^9+6741525 x^10+21960225
          x^11+53723775 x^12+ \ 96756975 x^13+122906250 x^14 +102343500
          x^15+45785250 x^16$$



          The probability of a favorable hand of $r$ cards is then
          $$frac[x^r]f(x)binom40r$$
          In order to win on draw $r+1$ the player must have a favorable hand on draw $r$ and then draw an ace on draw $r+1$, when there is one ace left in the deck and $40-r$ cards total. So the probability of a win on draw $r+1$ is
          $$frac[x^r]f(x)binom40r cdot frac140-r$$
          and the overall probability of winning is
          $$sum_r=0^16 frac[x^r]f(x)binom40r cdot frac140-r = boxed0.00194347$$






          share|cite|improve this answer











          $endgroup$












          • $begingroup$
            @user What do you mean by $p_1$?
            $endgroup$
            – awkward
            10 hours ago










          • $begingroup$
            @user Oh I see, you mean $p_i$ is the probability that rank $i$ is the first rank to get 5 cards. I haven't computed those other probabilities, but the probability I computed for aces is consistent with Monte Carlo results, so I'm pretty sure it's correct. If you see something wrong with the solution, please be specific.
            $endgroup$
            – awkward
            9 hours ago










          • $begingroup$
            @user OK, what are your numbers?
            $endgroup$
            – awkward
            9 hours ago










          • $begingroup$
            @awkward my monte carlo simulation comes up with the same answer as you awkward. Do you have any material to read about generating functions as I have not come across them before?
            $endgroup$
            – DH.
            8 hours ago











          • $begingroup$
            @DH. I would recommend actuarial course notes (if you can get your hands on them) great source for material on generating functions!
            $endgroup$
            – The Problem
            8 hours ago













          3












          3








          3





          $begingroup$

          Suppose a win occurs when the fifth ace is drawn on draw $r+1$, for $0 le r le 16$. On the previous draw, the hand must have contained four aces and no more than four of any of the other ranks, and then the contestant must draw an ace on draw $r+1$.



          Let's try to find the probability of being in a favorable state on draw $r$. There are $binom40r$ possible hands of $r$ cards, all of which we assume are equally likely. We would like to count the number of hands containing exactly four aces and no more than four of any other rank, which we will call a "favorable hand". To do this, we will find the generating function of the number of favorable hands. Numbering the ranks from ace to jack as $1$ through $4$, let's say $n_i$ is the initial number of cards in the deck of rank $i$, for $i=1,2,3,4$, so $n_1 = 5$, $n_2=6$, etc. If we consider only cards of rank $i$, then the generating function for the number of hands containing zero to four of those cards is
          $$sum_j=0^4 binomn_ij x^j$$
          The generating function for the number of ways to draw exactly four aces is simply $binom54x^4$; so the generating function for the number of favorable hands containing cards of all ranks is
          $$f(x) = binom54x^4 prod_i=2^4 sum_j=0^4 binomn_ij x^j$$
          I.e., the coefficient of $x^r$ when $f(x)$ is expanded, which which we will denote by $[x^r]f(x)$, is the number of hands containing exactly four aces and no more than four of any other rank. After some computation (I used Mathematica, but a pencil and paper computation should not be difficult),
          $$f(x) = 5 x^4+175 x^5+2975 x^6+32725 x^7+261800 x^8+ \
          1544980 x^9+6741525 x^10+21960225
          x^11+53723775 x^12+ \ 96756975 x^13+122906250 x^14 +102343500
          x^15+45785250 x^16$$



          The probability of a favorable hand of $r$ cards is then
          $$frac[x^r]f(x)binom40r$$
          In order to win on draw $r+1$ the player must have a favorable hand on draw $r$ and then draw an ace on draw $r+1$, when there is one ace left in the deck and $40-r$ cards total. So the probability of a win on draw $r+1$ is
          $$frac[x^r]f(x)binom40r cdot frac140-r$$
          and the overall probability of winning is
          $$sum_r=0^16 frac[x^r]f(x)binom40r cdot frac140-r = boxed0.00194347$$






          share|cite|improve this answer











          $endgroup$



          Suppose a win occurs when the fifth ace is drawn on draw $r+1$, for $0 le r le 16$. On the previous draw, the hand must have contained four aces and no more than four of any of the other ranks, and then the contestant must draw an ace on draw $r+1$.



          Let's try to find the probability of being in a favorable state on draw $r$. There are $binom40r$ possible hands of $r$ cards, all of which we assume are equally likely. We would like to count the number of hands containing exactly four aces and no more than four of any other rank, which we will call a "favorable hand". To do this, we will find the generating function of the number of favorable hands. Numbering the ranks from ace to jack as $1$ through $4$, let's say $n_i$ is the initial number of cards in the deck of rank $i$, for $i=1,2,3,4$, so $n_1 = 5$, $n_2=6$, etc. If we consider only cards of rank $i$, then the generating function for the number of hands containing zero to four of those cards is
          $$sum_j=0^4 binomn_ij x^j$$
          The generating function for the number of ways to draw exactly four aces is simply $binom54x^4$; so the generating function for the number of favorable hands containing cards of all ranks is
          $$f(x) = binom54x^4 prod_i=2^4 sum_j=0^4 binomn_ij x^j$$
          I.e., the coefficient of $x^r$ when $f(x)$ is expanded, which which we will denote by $[x^r]f(x)$, is the number of hands containing exactly four aces and no more than four of any other rank. After some computation (I used Mathematica, but a pencil and paper computation should not be difficult),
          $$f(x) = 5 x^4+175 x^5+2975 x^6+32725 x^7+261800 x^8+ \
          1544980 x^9+6741525 x^10+21960225
          x^11+53723775 x^12+ \ 96756975 x^13+122906250 x^14 +102343500
          x^15+45785250 x^16$$



          The probability of a favorable hand of $r$ cards is then
          $$frac[x^r]f(x)binom40r$$
          In order to win on draw $r+1$ the player must have a favorable hand on draw $r$ and then draw an ace on draw $r+1$, when there is one ace left in the deck and $40-r$ cards total. So the probability of a win on draw $r+1$ is
          $$frac[x^r]f(x)binom40r cdot frac140-r$$
          and the overall probability of winning is
          $$sum_r=0^16 frac[x^r]f(x)binom40r cdot frac140-r = boxed0.00194347$$







          share|cite|improve this answer














          share|cite|improve this answer



          share|cite|improve this answer








          edited 7 hours ago

























          answered 12 hours ago









          awkwardawkward

          6,24811022




          6,24811022











          • $begingroup$
            @user What do you mean by $p_1$?
            $endgroup$
            – awkward
            10 hours ago










          • $begingroup$
            @user Oh I see, you mean $p_i$ is the probability that rank $i$ is the first rank to get 5 cards. I haven't computed those other probabilities, but the probability I computed for aces is consistent with Monte Carlo results, so I'm pretty sure it's correct. If you see something wrong with the solution, please be specific.
            $endgroup$
            – awkward
            9 hours ago










          • $begingroup$
            @user OK, what are your numbers?
            $endgroup$
            – awkward
            9 hours ago










          • $begingroup$
            @awkward my monte carlo simulation comes up with the same answer as you awkward. Do you have any material to read about generating functions as I have not come across them before?
            $endgroup$
            – DH.
            8 hours ago











          • $begingroup$
            @DH. I would recommend actuarial course notes (if you can get your hands on them) great source for material on generating functions!
            $endgroup$
            – The Problem
            8 hours ago
















          • $begingroup$
            @user What do you mean by $p_1$?
            $endgroup$
            – awkward
            10 hours ago










          • $begingroup$
            @user Oh I see, you mean $p_i$ is the probability that rank $i$ is the first rank to get 5 cards. I haven't computed those other probabilities, but the probability I computed for aces is consistent with Monte Carlo results, so I'm pretty sure it's correct. If you see something wrong with the solution, please be specific.
            $endgroup$
            – awkward
            9 hours ago










          • $begingroup$
            @user OK, what are your numbers?
            $endgroup$
            – awkward
            9 hours ago










          • $begingroup$
            @awkward my monte carlo simulation comes up with the same answer as you awkward. Do you have any material to read about generating functions as I have not come across them before?
            $endgroup$
            – DH.
            8 hours ago











          • $begingroup$
            @DH. I would recommend actuarial course notes (if you can get your hands on them) great source for material on generating functions!
            $endgroup$
            – The Problem
            8 hours ago















          $begingroup$
          @user What do you mean by $p_1$?
          $endgroup$
          – awkward
          10 hours ago




          $begingroup$
          @user What do you mean by $p_1$?
          $endgroup$
          – awkward
          10 hours ago












          $begingroup$
          @user Oh I see, you mean $p_i$ is the probability that rank $i$ is the first rank to get 5 cards. I haven't computed those other probabilities, but the probability I computed for aces is consistent with Monte Carlo results, so I'm pretty sure it's correct. If you see something wrong with the solution, please be specific.
          $endgroup$
          – awkward
          9 hours ago




          $begingroup$
          @user Oh I see, you mean $p_i$ is the probability that rank $i$ is the first rank to get 5 cards. I haven't computed those other probabilities, but the probability I computed for aces is consistent with Monte Carlo results, so I'm pretty sure it's correct. If you see something wrong with the solution, please be specific.
          $endgroup$
          – awkward
          9 hours ago












          $begingroup$
          @user OK, what are your numbers?
          $endgroup$
          – awkward
          9 hours ago




          $begingroup$
          @user OK, what are your numbers?
          $endgroup$
          – awkward
          9 hours ago












          $begingroup$
          @awkward my monte carlo simulation comes up with the same answer as you awkward. Do you have any material to read about generating functions as I have not come across them before?
          $endgroup$
          – DH.
          8 hours ago





          $begingroup$
          @awkward my monte carlo simulation comes up with the same answer as you awkward. Do you have any material to read about generating functions as I have not come across them before?
          $endgroup$
          – DH.
          8 hours ago













          $begingroup$
          @DH. I would recommend actuarial course notes (if you can get your hands on them) great source for material on generating functions!
          $endgroup$
          – The Problem
          8 hours ago




          $begingroup$
          @DH. I would recommend actuarial course notes (if you can get your hands on them) great source for material on generating functions!
          $endgroup$
          – The Problem
          8 hours ago

















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