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Discrete probability



The Next CEO of Stack OverflowHow can I find the expected value due to the trials instead of simply expected value of trials of a geometric distribution?The probability of a certain number of trials before a defective object is selectedProbability of defective of 1 item after picking 5 items outCalculate the probability using binomial distribution for a conditional statementProbability Question [Hypergeometric Distribution]Simple Probability - Enumeration and Geometric DistributionsExpected number of trials until completionLucky game of a success and failure probability. (Advanced probability exams problem)Expected Value where probability changes after successExpected value with recursive probability










0












$begingroup$


1) A sample of 3 items is selected at random from a box containing 20 items of which 4 are defective. Find the expected number of defective items:



Since there is a sample of 3 and a total of 20 items, i can use a hyper-geometric distribution:



N: 20



n: 3



x: number of success in sample n, ?



k: number of success in population N, ?



E[x]=$fracn times kN$



Originally I had this as a binomial with P: (1/5) 4 success in 20 trials...



2) Suppose a player is dealt 5 cards. Find the probability that a player is dealt a pair: This could be done with a hyper geometric I believe:



N: 52



n: 5



x: 2



k: 3?



3) A box contains 5 red and 5 blue marbles. 2 are withdrawn randomly. If they are the same color you win 1.10 if they are different you lose 1.00. Calculate the expected value you win and the variance:



Each time a ball is drawn the event is independent with a probability of 1/2 of success and 2 trials:



E[x]= 2(1/2)=1



Var[x]=np(1-p)=2(1/2)(1/2)=.50



4) Suppose the average number of cars abandoned weekly on a certain highway is 2.2. Approximate the probability that there will be a) no abandoned b) at least 2



a) Poisson with $mu=2.2$ and $x=0$:



$frace^-2.2 times 2.2^00!$



b) 1-(P(0)+P(1)+P(2)+P(3)) Im not going to calculate its a pain but the reasoning is correct?










share|cite|improve this question











$endgroup$
















    0












    $begingroup$


    1) A sample of 3 items is selected at random from a box containing 20 items of which 4 are defective. Find the expected number of defective items:



    Since there is a sample of 3 and a total of 20 items, i can use a hyper-geometric distribution:



    N: 20



    n: 3



    x: number of success in sample n, ?



    k: number of success in population N, ?



    E[x]=$fracn times kN$



    Originally I had this as a binomial with P: (1/5) 4 success in 20 trials...



    2) Suppose a player is dealt 5 cards. Find the probability that a player is dealt a pair: This could be done with a hyper geometric I believe:



    N: 52



    n: 5



    x: 2



    k: 3?



    3) A box contains 5 red and 5 blue marbles. 2 are withdrawn randomly. If they are the same color you win 1.10 if they are different you lose 1.00. Calculate the expected value you win and the variance:



    Each time a ball is drawn the event is independent with a probability of 1/2 of success and 2 trials:



    E[x]= 2(1/2)=1



    Var[x]=np(1-p)=2(1/2)(1/2)=.50



    4) Suppose the average number of cars abandoned weekly on a certain highway is 2.2. Approximate the probability that there will be a) no abandoned b) at least 2



    a) Poisson with $mu=2.2$ and $x=0$:



    $frace^-2.2 times 2.2^00!$



    b) 1-(P(0)+P(1)+P(2)+P(3)) Im not going to calculate its a pain but the reasoning is correct?










    share|cite|improve this question











    $endgroup$














      0












      0








      0





      $begingroup$


      1) A sample of 3 items is selected at random from a box containing 20 items of which 4 are defective. Find the expected number of defective items:



      Since there is a sample of 3 and a total of 20 items, i can use a hyper-geometric distribution:



      N: 20



      n: 3



      x: number of success in sample n, ?



      k: number of success in population N, ?



      E[x]=$fracn times kN$



      Originally I had this as a binomial with P: (1/5) 4 success in 20 trials...



      2) Suppose a player is dealt 5 cards. Find the probability that a player is dealt a pair: This could be done with a hyper geometric I believe:



      N: 52



      n: 5



      x: 2



      k: 3?



      3) A box contains 5 red and 5 blue marbles. 2 are withdrawn randomly. If they are the same color you win 1.10 if they are different you lose 1.00. Calculate the expected value you win and the variance:



      Each time a ball is drawn the event is independent with a probability of 1/2 of success and 2 trials:



      E[x]= 2(1/2)=1



      Var[x]=np(1-p)=2(1/2)(1/2)=.50



      4) Suppose the average number of cars abandoned weekly on a certain highway is 2.2. Approximate the probability that there will be a) no abandoned b) at least 2



      a) Poisson with $mu=2.2$ and $x=0$:



      $frace^-2.2 times 2.2^00!$



      b) 1-(P(0)+P(1)+P(2)+P(3)) Im not going to calculate its a pain but the reasoning is correct?










      share|cite|improve this question











      $endgroup$




      1) A sample of 3 items is selected at random from a box containing 20 items of which 4 are defective. Find the expected number of defective items:



      Since there is a sample of 3 and a total of 20 items, i can use a hyper-geometric distribution:



      N: 20



      n: 3



      x: number of success in sample n, ?



      k: number of success in population N, ?



      E[x]=$fracn times kN$



      Originally I had this as a binomial with P: (1/5) 4 success in 20 trials...



      2) Suppose a player is dealt 5 cards. Find the probability that a player is dealt a pair: This could be done with a hyper geometric I believe:



      N: 52



      n: 5



      x: 2



      k: 3?



      3) A box contains 5 red and 5 blue marbles. 2 are withdrawn randomly. If they are the same color you win 1.10 if they are different you lose 1.00. Calculate the expected value you win and the variance:



      Each time a ball is drawn the event is independent with a probability of 1/2 of success and 2 trials:



      E[x]= 2(1/2)=1



      Var[x]=np(1-p)=2(1/2)(1/2)=.50



      4) Suppose the average number of cars abandoned weekly on a certain highway is 2.2. Approximate the probability that there will be a) no abandoned b) at least 2



      a) Poisson with $mu=2.2$ and $x=0$:



      $frace^-2.2 times 2.2^00!$



      b) 1-(P(0)+P(1)+P(2)+P(3)) Im not going to calculate its a pain but the reasoning is correct?







      probability






      share|cite|improve this question















      share|cite|improve this question













      share|cite|improve this question




      share|cite|improve this question








      edited Mar 20 '17 at 23:32







      user418682

















      asked Mar 20 '17 at 20:40









      user418682user418682

      887




      887




















          1 Answer
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          active

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          0












          $begingroup$

          A little help on some parts, where you have shown some of your work.



          $1.$ Hypergeometric is correct. Expected value 0.6, as you say.



          $2.$ You show nothing to support your 'hypergeometric' guess.



          $3.$ Suggest you use a tree diagram. The probability both balls are red is
          $P(R_1 cap R_2) = P(R_1)P(R_2|R_1) = (5/10)(4/9)= 2/9.$
          Then find the probability both are green. Add to get the probability
          they are both of the same color. Finally, figure the distribution of
          your winnings.



          $4$(b). $X sim mathsfPois(lambda=2.2)$ and you seek
          $$P(X ge 2) = 1 - P(X le 1) = 1 - P(X = 0) - P(X = 1).$$
          You already have $P(X = 0)$ from part (a), so it's not 'such a pain'
          as you thought.






          share|cite|improve this answer









          $endgroup$













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            1 Answer
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            1 Answer
            1






            active

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            active

            oldest

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            active

            oldest

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            0












            $begingroup$

            A little help on some parts, where you have shown some of your work.



            $1.$ Hypergeometric is correct. Expected value 0.6, as you say.



            $2.$ You show nothing to support your 'hypergeometric' guess.



            $3.$ Suggest you use a tree diagram. The probability both balls are red is
            $P(R_1 cap R_2) = P(R_1)P(R_2|R_1) = (5/10)(4/9)= 2/9.$
            Then find the probability both are green. Add to get the probability
            they are both of the same color. Finally, figure the distribution of
            your winnings.



            $4$(b). $X sim mathsfPois(lambda=2.2)$ and you seek
            $$P(X ge 2) = 1 - P(X le 1) = 1 - P(X = 0) - P(X = 1).$$
            You already have $P(X = 0)$ from part (a), so it's not 'such a pain'
            as you thought.






            share|cite|improve this answer









            $endgroup$

















              0












              $begingroup$

              A little help on some parts, where you have shown some of your work.



              $1.$ Hypergeometric is correct. Expected value 0.6, as you say.



              $2.$ You show nothing to support your 'hypergeometric' guess.



              $3.$ Suggest you use a tree diagram. The probability both balls are red is
              $P(R_1 cap R_2) = P(R_1)P(R_2|R_1) = (5/10)(4/9)= 2/9.$
              Then find the probability both are green. Add to get the probability
              they are both of the same color. Finally, figure the distribution of
              your winnings.



              $4$(b). $X sim mathsfPois(lambda=2.2)$ and you seek
              $$P(X ge 2) = 1 - P(X le 1) = 1 - P(X = 0) - P(X = 1).$$
              You already have $P(X = 0)$ from part (a), so it's not 'such a pain'
              as you thought.






              share|cite|improve this answer









              $endgroup$















                0












                0








                0





                $begingroup$

                A little help on some parts, where you have shown some of your work.



                $1.$ Hypergeometric is correct. Expected value 0.6, as you say.



                $2.$ You show nothing to support your 'hypergeometric' guess.



                $3.$ Suggest you use a tree diagram. The probability both balls are red is
                $P(R_1 cap R_2) = P(R_1)P(R_2|R_1) = (5/10)(4/9)= 2/9.$
                Then find the probability both are green. Add to get the probability
                they are both of the same color. Finally, figure the distribution of
                your winnings.



                $4$(b). $X sim mathsfPois(lambda=2.2)$ and you seek
                $$P(X ge 2) = 1 - P(X le 1) = 1 - P(X = 0) - P(X = 1).$$
                You already have $P(X = 0)$ from part (a), so it's not 'such a pain'
                as you thought.






                share|cite|improve this answer









                $endgroup$



                A little help on some parts, where you have shown some of your work.



                $1.$ Hypergeometric is correct. Expected value 0.6, as you say.



                $2.$ You show nothing to support your 'hypergeometric' guess.



                $3.$ Suggest you use a tree diagram. The probability both balls are red is
                $P(R_1 cap R_2) = P(R_1)P(R_2|R_1) = (5/10)(4/9)= 2/9.$
                Then find the probability both are green. Add to get the probability
                they are both of the same color. Finally, figure the distribution of
                your winnings.



                $4$(b). $X sim mathsfPois(lambda=2.2)$ and you seek
                $$P(X ge 2) = 1 - P(X le 1) = 1 - P(X = 0) - P(X = 1).$$
                You already have $P(X = 0)$ from part (a), so it's not 'such a pain'
                as you thought.







                share|cite|improve this answer












                share|cite|improve this answer



                share|cite|improve this answer










                answered Mar 21 '17 at 7:53









                BruceETBruceET

                36.2k71540




                36.2k71540



























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