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Durrett Example 1.9 - Pairwise independence does not imply mutual independence?



The Next CEO of Stack Overflowmutual independence implies pairwise independence show that the converse is not true.If three events are pairwise independent, are they independent “collectively”?Does independence from independent events imply joint independence?Having birthday at the same dayProbability that grows from the first of January until the end of December. How to compute?Birthday paradoxSolving birthday problem without complementInspired by the Birthday ProblemPairwise independence + additional condition imply independenceProviding Example that independence of events $A, B$ is dependent on Probability measureTennis Paradox ProbabilityWhy does my approach to the birthday problem(with 3 people) produce a wrong result?Probability with Alice and Betty










4












$begingroup$


The example in question is from Rick Durrett's "Elementrary Probability for Applications", and the setup is something like this:




Let $A$ be the event "Alice and Betty have the same birthday", $B$ be the event "Betty and Carol have the same birthday", and $C$ be the event "Carol and Alice have the same birthday".




Durrett goes on to demonstrate that each pair is independent, since for example,



$P(A cap B) = P(A)P(B)$.



However, he concludes that $A, B$, and $C$ are not independent, since



$P(A cap B cap C) = frac1365^2 neq frac1365^3 = P(A)P(B)P(C)$.



I understand the reasoning here, and that one can generally show that arbitrary events $X$ and $Y$ are not independent by showing that $P(Xcap Y) neq P(X)P(Y)$.



I am a little new to probability, though, and don't understand why exactly $P(A cap B cap C) = frac1365^2$.



My progress so far:



I do see why $P(A) = P(B) =P(C) = frac1365$, and thus why $P(A)P(B)P(C) = frac1365^3$.



It seems like the sample space $Omega = (a, b, c) mid a,b,c in [365] $ -- i.e., all of the possible triples of numbers from 1 to 365, where 1 denotes January 1st, 2 denotes January 2nd, etc. From that, I can conclude $|Omega| = 365^3$, but I'm not sure where to go from here.



It seems like once a single birthday is chosen, the rest are completely determined if they're all equal to each other - is this a good direction to go in?










share|cite|improve this question









$endgroup$
















    4












    $begingroup$


    The example in question is from Rick Durrett's "Elementrary Probability for Applications", and the setup is something like this:




    Let $A$ be the event "Alice and Betty have the same birthday", $B$ be the event "Betty and Carol have the same birthday", and $C$ be the event "Carol and Alice have the same birthday".




    Durrett goes on to demonstrate that each pair is independent, since for example,



    $P(A cap B) = P(A)P(B)$.



    However, he concludes that $A, B$, and $C$ are not independent, since



    $P(A cap B cap C) = frac1365^2 neq frac1365^3 = P(A)P(B)P(C)$.



    I understand the reasoning here, and that one can generally show that arbitrary events $X$ and $Y$ are not independent by showing that $P(Xcap Y) neq P(X)P(Y)$.



    I am a little new to probability, though, and don't understand why exactly $P(A cap B cap C) = frac1365^2$.



    My progress so far:



    I do see why $P(A) = P(B) =P(C) = frac1365$, and thus why $P(A)P(B)P(C) = frac1365^3$.



    It seems like the sample space $Omega = (a, b, c) mid a,b,c in [365] $ -- i.e., all of the possible triples of numbers from 1 to 365, where 1 denotes January 1st, 2 denotes January 2nd, etc. From that, I can conclude $|Omega| = 365^3$, but I'm not sure where to go from here.



    It seems like once a single birthday is chosen, the rest are completely determined if they're all equal to each other - is this a good direction to go in?










    share|cite|improve this question









    $endgroup$














      4












      4








      4


      2



      $begingroup$


      The example in question is from Rick Durrett's "Elementrary Probability for Applications", and the setup is something like this:




      Let $A$ be the event "Alice and Betty have the same birthday", $B$ be the event "Betty and Carol have the same birthday", and $C$ be the event "Carol and Alice have the same birthday".




      Durrett goes on to demonstrate that each pair is independent, since for example,



      $P(A cap B) = P(A)P(B)$.



      However, he concludes that $A, B$, and $C$ are not independent, since



      $P(A cap B cap C) = frac1365^2 neq frac1365^3 = P(A)P(B)P(C)$.



      I understand the reasoning here, and that one can generally show that arbitrary events $X$ and $Y$ are not independent by showing that $P(Xcap Y) neq P(X)P(Y)$.



      I am a little new to probability, though, and don't understand why exactly $P(A cap B cap C) = frac1365^2$.



      My progress so far:



      I do see why $P(A) = P(B) =P(C) = frac1365$, and thus why $P(A)P(B)P(C) = frac1365^3$.



      It seems like the sample space $Omega = (a, b, c) mid a,b,c in [365] $ -- i.e., all of the possible triples of numbers from 1 to 365, where 1 denotes January 1st, 2 denotes January 2nd, etc. From that, I can conclude $|Omega| = 365^3$, but I'm not sure where to go from here.



      It seems like once a single birthday is chosen, the rest are completely determined if they're all equal to each other - is this a good direction to go in?










      share|cite|improve this question









      $endgroup$




      The example in question is from Rick Durrett's "Elementrary Probability for Applications", and the setup is something like this:




      Let $A$ be the event "Alice and Betty have the same birthday", $B$ be the event "Betty and Carol have the same birthday", and $C$ be the event "Carol and Alice have the same birthday".




      Durrett goes on to demonstrate that each pair is independent, since for example,



      $P(A cap B) = P(A)P(B)$.



      However, he concludes that $A, B$, and $C$ are not independent, since



      $P(A cap B cap C) = frac1365^2 neq frac1365^3 = P(A)P(B)P(C)$.



      I understand the reasoning here, and that one can generally show that arbitrary events $X$ and $Y$ are not independent by showing that $P(Xcap Y) neq P(X)P(Y)$.



      I am a little new to probability, though, and don't understand why exactly $P(A cap B cap C) = frac1365^2$.



      My progress so far:



      I do see why $P(A) = P(B) =P(C) = frac1365$, and thus why $P(A)P(B)P(C) = frac1365^3$.



      It seems like the sample space $Omega = (a, b, c) mid a,b,c in [365] $ -- i.e., all of the possible triples of numbers from 1 to 365, where 1 denotes January 1st, 2 denotes January 2nd, etc. From that, I can conclude $|Omega| = 365^3$, but I'm not sure where to go from here.



      It seems like once a single birthday is chosen, the rest are completely determined if they're all equal to each other - is this a good direction to go in?







      probability independence






      share|cite|improve this question













      share|cite|improve this question











      share|cite|improve this question




      share|cite|improve this question










      asked Jan 10 '16 at 0:30









      D. Zack GarzaD. Zack Garza

      8712




      8712




















          2 Answers
          2






          active

          oldest

          votes


















          5












          $begingroup$

          There are $365$ tuples of the form $(a,a,a)$ out of $365^3$ tuples in the sample space, hence the probability.






          share|cite|improve this answer









          $endgroup$












          • $begingroup$
            Ah! Yep, that's exactly what I was missing. That clears it up perfectly, thanks!
            $endgroup$
            – D. Zack Garza
            Jan 10 '16 at 0:55


















          2












          $begingroup$

          The event $Acap Bcap C$ happens if and only if the event $Acap B$ happens. And you know how to find $Pr(Acap B)$.






          share|cite|improve this answer









          $endgroup$













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            2 Answers
            2






            active

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            2 Answers
            2






            active

            oldest

            votes









            active

            oldest

            votes






            active

            oldest

            votes









            5












            $begingroup$

            There are $365$ tuples of the form $(a,a,a)$ out of $365^3$ tuples in the sample space, hence the probability.






            share|cite|improve this answer









            $endgroup$












            • $begingroup$
              Ah! Yep, that's exactly what I was missing. That clears it up perfectly, thanks!
              $endgroup$
              – D. Zack Garza
              Jan 10 '16 at 0:55















            5












            $begingroup$

            There are $365$ tuples of the form $(a,a,a)$ out of $365^3$ tuples in the sample space, hence the probability.






            share|cite|improve this answer









            $endgroup$












            • $begingroup$
              Ah! Yep, that's exactly what I was missing. That clears it up perfectly, thanks!
              $endgroup$
              – D. Zack Garza
              Jan 10 '16 at 0:55













            5












            5








            5





            $begingroup$

            There are $365$ tuples of the form $(a,a,a)$ out of $365^3$ tuples in the sample space, hence the probability.






            share|cite|improve this answer









            $endgroup$



            There are $365$ tuples of the form $(a,a,a)$ out of $365^3$ tuples in the sample space, hence the probability.







            share|cite|improve this answer












            share|cite|improve this answer



            share|cite|improve this answer










            answered Jan 10 '16 at 0:38









            Foobaz JohnFoobaz John

            22.9k41552




            22.9k41552











            • $begingroup$
              Ah! Yep, that's exactly what I was missing. That clears it up perfectly, thanks!
              $endgroup$
              – D. Zack Garza
              Jan 10 '16 at 0:55
















            • $begingroup$
              Ah! Yep, that's exactly what I was missing. That clears it up perfectly, thanks!
              $endgroup$
              – D. Zack Garza
              Jan 10 '16 at 0:55















            $begingroup$
            Ah! Yep, that's exactly what I was missing. That clears it up perfectly, thanks!
            $endgroup$
            – D. Zack Garza
            Jan 10 '16 at 0:55




            $begingroup$
            Ah! Yep, that's exactly what I was missing. That clears it up perfectly, thanks!
            $endgroup$
            – D. Zack Garza
            Jan 10 '16 at 0:55











            2












            $begingroup$

            The event $Acap Bcap C$ happens if and only if the event $Acap B$ happens. And you know how to find $Pr(Acap B)$.






            share|cite|improve this answer









            $endgroup$

















              2












              $begingroup$

              The event $Acap Bcap C$ happens if and only if the event $Acap B$ happens. And you know how to find $Pr(Acap B)$.






              share|cite|improve this answer









              $endgroup$















                2












                2








                2





                $begingroup$

                The event $Acap Bcap C$ happens if and only if the event $Acap B$ happens. And you know how to find $Pr(Acap B)$.






                share|cite|improve this answer









                $endgroup$



                The event $Acap Bcap C$ happens if and only if the event $Acap B$ happens. And you know how to find $Pr(Acap B)$.







                share|cite|improve this answer












                share|cite|improve this answer



                share|cite|improve this answer










                answered Jan 10 '16 at 0:41









                André NicolasAndré Nicolas

                455k36432819




                455k36432819



























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